摘要
本文利用2004-2011年全国35个大中城市的房价数据,采用Maddala(1983)提出的处理效应模型,对地铁开通对城市平均房价的影响进行了细致的政策评估,同时对始于2004年的这股"地铁热",从房价宏观调控角度展开了深刻反思。实证研究发现:地铁开通对城市商品房价上涨的贡献率约为5.06%,其中更主要是对二三线城市和商业楼盘产生影响。按照2020年我国轨道交通规模6 000公里的规划,将会因为仅仅开通地铁导致房价上涨10.23%,情景模拟结果表明,这会使得开通地铁的33个大中城市居民家庭在2020年需要多工作1.37年才能买得起房,住房负担提高了近四分之一。本文从稳定房价的角度出发,主张二三线城市地铁开通应该提高门槛,从严控制。
This paper estimates the impact of metro opening on housing price using housing price data of 35 large and medium- sized cities from 2004- 2011,and employs treatment effect model proposed by Maddala. Meanwhile,this paper rethinks the ＂Metro- Hot＂phenomena started in2000 from the perspective of macroeconomic regulation and control on housing price. Empirical results show：（1） The metro opening＇s contribution to the price of commercial housing rising is about 5. 06%. The counterfactual results show that the rising levels of housing prices will be higher than those cities where already opened metros,which is caused by ＂Metro- Hot＂to a great extent.（2） According to the Plan of Rail Transit System 6000 km in 2020,the housing price will rise 10. 23% only because of metro opening. Scenario simulation results show that rising housing price will make residents in 33 metro cities to work extra 1. 37 years in order to afford housing in2020. From the perspective of stabilizing housing price,this paper advocates to strictly control the opening of metro in middle and small cities and develop it gradually.
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第3期56-71,共16页
Economic Review
关键词
地铁热
房价
政策评估
处理效应
情景模拟
Metro - Hot, Hosing Price, Policy Evaluation, Treatment Effect, Counterfactual Analysis
