摘要
中国的居民储蓄率水平一直居于高位,并且保持了持续上升的势头,同期的住房价格也快速上涨,为买房而储蓄是储蓄率上升的一个主要动机。本文利用2011年房产税试点政策作为自然实验,采用倍差法(Difference-in-difference,DID)首先估计了房产税对不同类型住房价格的影响,进而估计房价对试点城市的居民储蓄率的影响。我们发现房产税对住房市场产生了结构效应,由于此次改革对不同类型的住房设定了不同的免税方案,因此在大面积住房价格下降的同时,试点城市小面积住房价格反而上升;这种结构效应对不同收入群体的居民储蓄行为产生了不同的影响,我们发现试点城市低收入阶层的储蓄率因此增加了0.9个百分点,并且我们还发现低收入群体主要是通过压缩衣着和交通通信支出,来提高其储蓄率水平。因此,本文不仅验证了住房市场对中国高储蓄率的贡献,还揭示了房产税改革带来的收入分配效应。
Chinese savings rate has been high, and has kept a rising momentum; at the same period, the price of houses for living has been rising rapidly, and saving for buying a house has been a main motivation for the rise of the saving rate.By the use of an experimental unit policy for the tax for the house property(TFTHP) in 2011 as a natural experi?ment and the use of the method of difference-in-difference, we, first of all, estimated the impact of the TFTHP on the price of different kinds of living houses, and further estimated the impact of the house price on the savings rate of the test city. We have discovered that the TFTHP has produced a structural effect on the market of the living house, that,because the reform of this time has established different plan for exempting from taxation, and at the same time, the price of the large living house has dropped, the price of small living house in experimental city has, on the contrary,risen, and that the effect of this structure will have different effect on the savings behavior of the group of residents with different income. We have also found that, because of the above-mentioned reason, the savings rate of the people with low income in experimental city has risen by 0.9%, and that the people with low income have risen their the level of savings rate mainly by cutting down their expenditure for buying cloths and for communication. Therefore, we have,in this paper, tested and verified the contribution of the market for the living house for China's high savings rate, and revealed the effects of the income distribution that have been brought about by the reform of the TFTHP.
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第5期18-27,187,共10页
Journal of Management World
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:71303083)
教育部人文社会科学研究基金青年项目(编号:11YJC790039)的资助
