摘要
中期来看,新兴经济体面临的外部冲击主要来自三方面:美联储非传统宽松货币政策的退出及其引致的国际资本流动、发达经济体的需求回暖以及大宗商品价格的进一步走弱。在分析G20中11个主要新兴经济体的对外经济结构、经济的内在稳定性之后,文章对各国受冲击的情况进行了分类:一是中国和韩国,外部冲击总体相对有利,其财政、货币政策存在较大空间来应对可能发生的冲击;二是墨西哥、沙特阿拉伯、南非、印度尼西亚、印度,同时受来自外部的正负面冲击,预计综合结果接近中性;三是俄罗斯、巴西、阿根廷、土耳其,面临的外部冲击相对较为负面,最有可能面临严重的外部冲击,且缺乏应对的政策空间。
From a mid-term perspective,the emerging economies face three external shocks,including the US Fed' s expected QE tapering and the resulting international capital flows,the recovering demand of the developed economies,and the further weakening of commodities prices.Based on analysis of the foreign economic structure and internal economic stability of the emerging economies,this paper looks at the levels of shocks those countries are expected to encounter.First,China and South Korea may on the whole benefit from the above-mentioned shocks and both have sufficient fiscal and monetary ammunition to cope with possible shocks.Second,those shocks would have both positive and negative effects on Mexico,Saudi Arabia,Indonesia and India and on the whole,the effect would be neutral.Third,those shocks would have a relatively negative effect on Russia,Brazil,Argentina and Turkey,which may suffer the most;worse,there is not much room left for them to devise policies to reduce the impact of those shocks.
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第3期96-108,6,共13页
International Economic Review
基金
中国社会科学院创新工程重大课题(2014YCXZD008)"南北合作
南南合作与全球经济治理"的资助
