期刊文献+

不同升温目标下全球与中国未来排放空间分析 被引量:4

Global and China's Admissible Emissions Pathways Under the Different Warming Targets
下载PDF
导出
摘要 利用自适应控制模型对气候系统进行模拟,比较了基于不同参照基准年2℃升温目标下的金球允许排放路径,在评价各目标可行性的基础上提出了三种减排目标方案,进而根据不同分配原则计算了中国未来的排放空间。研究表明,实现较工业化前升温2℃较为困难,实现较1850—1900年和1861—1880年升温2℃目标的可能性较大。提出了较工业化前升温2.5℃、较1986—2005年升温1.0℃和较1850—1900年升温1.5℃三种可行的轻度、中度和高度减排目标。中国在主权、平等主义和支付能力分配原则下可获得约1/5的比例份额,在三种目标情景中排放空间逐渐降低,排放缺口依次增大。 This paper adopted the adaptive control model to simulate the climate system, and simultaneously projected the global admissible emission paths under 2 ℃ warming targets relative to various base-years. It thrther proposed three viable warming targets based on the feasibility assessment of the aforementioned targets. Finally, we analyzed the corresponding admissible emissions and emission gaps for China under various principles of allocation. It indicated that it is hard to fulfill the 2℃ warming target relative to the pre-industrial level; while the likelihood to limit the warming within the 2 ℃ target relative to 1850-1900 or 1861 - 1880 is high. Moreover, we proposed the light-, mid- and heavy-abatement targets, which are to limit the warming within 2.5℃ relative to pre-industrial level, within 1.0℃ relative to 1986-2005 and within 1.5℃ relative to 1850-1900. China will acquire about one fifth of global emissions under the sovereignty, egalitarianism and ability-to-pay principles. But with all these principles, China's admissible emissions will shrink gradually under the three warming targets and the emission gap between demand and supply will enlarge accordingly.
出处 《气候变化研究进展》 CSCD 北大核心 2015年第3期195-204,共10页 Climate Change Research
基金 中国国家基础研究973项目(2012CB955804) 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项"应对气候变化的碳收支认证及相关问题"(XDA05150502) 国家自然科学基金项目(41201594)
关键词 自适应控制 升温目标 排放空间 分配原则 adaptive control temperature control target emission space allocation principle
  • 相关文献

参考文献23

  • 1U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). International energy statistics [R/OL]. 2015 [2015-01-02]. http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ ipdbprojectIIEDIndex3 .c fm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8.
  • 2Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL). Mauna Lea CO2 annual mean data [R/OL]. 2015 [2015-01-02]. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/ trends/.
  • 3IPCC. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis JR]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
  • 4Hansen J E. A slippery slope: how much global warming constitutes 'dangerous anthropogenic interference'? [J]. Climatic Change, 2005, 68: 269-279.
  • 5RandaUs S. History of the 2 ~C climate target [J]. Wiley Intcrdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2010, 1 (4): 598-605.
  • 6Tol R S J. Europe's long-term climate target: a critical evaluation [J]. Energy Policy, 2007, 35:424-432.
  • 7Nordhaus W D. Rolling the DICE: an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases [J]. Resource and Energy Economics, 1993, 15:27-50.
  • 8Nordhans W D, Boyer J. Warming the world: economics models of global warming [M]. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2000.
  • 9Zhu Y B, Wang Z. An optimal balanced economic growth and abatement pathway for China under the carbon emissions budget [J]. Computational Economies, 2013, 44 (2): 253-268.
  • 10Stem N. Stem review on the economics of climate change [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

二级参考文献13

  • 1Rose A,Stevens S B,Edmonds J et al.International equity and differentiation in global warming policy.Environmental and Resource Economics,1998,12:25-51.
  • 2Bohm P,Larsen B.Fairness in a tradable-permit treaty for carbon emission reductions in Europe and the Former Soviet Union.Environmental and Resource Economics,1994,4:219-239.
  • 3Kverndokk S.Tradeable CO2 emission permits:Intial distribution as a justice problem.Environmental Values,1995,4(2):129-148.
  • 4Janssen M,Rotmans J.Allocation of fossil CO2 emission rights quantifying cultural perspectives.Ecological Economics,1995,13:65-79.
  • 5Cramton P,Kerr S.Tradable carbon permit auctions:How and why to auction not grandfather.Energy Policy,2002,30:333-345.
  • 6Steenberghe V.Core-stable and equitable allocations of greenhouse gas emission permits.CORE Discussion Papers,No 2004075.Available at SSRN:http:∥ssrn.com/abstract=683162 or doi:10.2139/ssrn.683162.
  • 7Cazorla M,Toman M.International Equity and Climate Change Policy.2000 www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-CCIB-27.pdf.
  • 8国家发展和改革委员会.中国应对气候变化国家方案,http://www.gov.cn/gzdt/2007-06/04/content_635590.htm,2007.
  • 9王铮,朱永彬.我国各省区碳排放量状况及减排对策研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2008,23(2):109-115. 被引量:183
  • 10王铮,吴静,李刚强,张焕波,王丽娟.国际参与下的全球气候保护策略可行性模拟[J].生态学报,2009,29(5):2407-2417. 被引量:22

共引文献20

同被引文献93

引证文献4

二级引证文献57

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部