摘要
通过分析2014年云南鲁甸MS6.5地震前震情跟踪过程中的显著异常,认为云南境内M≥6.5地震的长时间平静、M≥6地震的丛集活动以及M≥3地震月频次高值是震前云南地区地震活动异常的显著特征;滇东北地区M≥5地震活动的韵律特征、2008年后3、4级地震活动显著增强以及2014年以来滇东北地区的高水位异常是判定滇东北地区存在M≥6地震的主要依据。在多个地震同时孕育的过程中,对判定哪个危险区先发震是困难的,但每次地震都有新的前兆异常出现,为成组地震连发过程中,新地震的识别提供了依据。云南地区3级地震月频次异常和前兆突变异常增多是鲁甸MS6.5地震短期阶段最显著的异常特征。
Analyzing the remarkable precursory anomalies in the process of seismic tracking before Yunnan Ludian Ms6. 5 earthquake in 2014, we considered that the main characteristic of earthquake activity anomaly before the earthquake was that the quiet of M ≥ 6. 5 earthquakes for a long time, the cluster activities of M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes and the high value of monthly frequency of M≥3.0 earthquakes in Yunnan province. The main basis of making the judgment that there existed M≥6. 0 earthquake in Northeastern Yunnan region are the prosodic features of M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Northeastern Yunnan region, the earthquake activities of M3.0 -4. 0 earthquakes increased notably since 2008 and some high water level anomalies in Northeastern Yunnan region since 2014. In the process of the several earthquakes preparation at the same time, it is difficult to make the judgment whose risk region will be the first to occur the earthquake. However there appeared new precursory anomalies before each earthquake, which can help us to identify the new earthquake in the occurrence of grouped earthquakes in succession. The monthly frequency anomaly of M ≥ 3.0 earthquakes and the increasing of sudden change of precursory abnormity items made good effort in the time prediction of Ludian Ms6. 5 earthquake in the short-term period.
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期181-188,共8页
Journal of Seismological Research
基金
中国地震局"云南鲁甸6.5级地震专题研究"和云南省人民政府"十项措施"监测预报项目(JCYB-20080601-5)共同资助
关键词
鲁甸MS6.5地震
前兆异常
异常特征
地震预测
Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake
precursory anomaly
anomaly characteristic
earthquake predicdon
