摘要
针对PFI项目产生的风险具有特殊性和复杂性。首先,通过思维导图和因果分析法识别主要风险指标;然后,应用群组决策层次分析法对3种投资策略进行风险评价。分析结果表明：我国的风险权重和国外不同,经济风险最大,社会其次,技术风险最小;独资风险最大,控股风险略大于参股风险。最后,通过挖掘专家的隐性知识,建议国有资本应占30%-40%,民营资本占60%-70%,但所有股东中,无论国有还是民营,最大股东所占份额不超过30%。
The risk of PFI projects is of particularity and complexity. Firstly,the mind map and causality analysis are used to identify the key risk indices.Secondly,the multi-AHP model is adopted to evaluate the risk of three kinds of investment strategies. The results show that the risk weight in China is different from that in foreign countries,i. e.,the economic risk is the largest,followed by the social one,and the technical risk is the smallest. The sole proprietorship has the largest risk,and the control risk is slightly greater than the risk of equity. Finally,by mining the experts' implicit knowledge,it is suggested that the state-owned capital should account for 30% ~ 40% and the private capital for 60% ~ 70%. However,for all the shareholders, whether the state-owned or the private,the largest shareholder of the share should be less than 30%.
出处
《水利经济》
2015年第3期14-18,36,共6页
Journal of Economics of Water Resources
