摘要
目的探讨影响舟山市手足121病发病的主要气象因素。方法收集2009--2013年舟山市手足121病周发病资料和气象资料。利用Spearman相关进行单因素相关分析，用岭回归进行多因素分析舟山市手足口病与气象因素之间的关系。结果舟山市手足口病周发病人数与周平均气温、周平均相对湿度、周平均水汽压、周日照时数呈正相关（r=0．467～0．827，P均〈0．01），周平均气压与发病人数呈负相关（r=-0．756-0．772，P〈0．01），而周平均降水量、周平均风速与周发病数无线性相关关系（P〉0．05）。岭回归模型分析显示，周平均相对湿度、周平均水汽压、周平均气温和周日照时数是手足口病发病的主要气象影响因素（P〈0．05），均呈正相关关系。标准回归系数比较表明，作用大小为周平均相对湿度（0．273）〉周平均水汽压（0．220）〉周平均气温（0．156）〉周日照时数（0．141）。结论舟山海岛地区手足口病与气象因素明显相关，其中相对湿度、水汽压、气温和日照时数是影响舟山海岛地区手足口病发病的主要气象因素。
Objective To analyze the meteorological factors of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） in Zhoushan. Methods Data on weekly incidence of HFMD and meteorological factors in Zhoushan from 2009 to 2013 were collected and analyzed by single factor correlation analysis with Spearman correlation assay. The ridge regression was used to identify the meteorological factors which affecting incidence of HFMD. Results There were positive correlations between weekly average temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure, sunshine hours and HFMD incidence （r=0.467-0.827, P all 〈0.01） and a negative correlation between weekly average air pressure and HFMD incidence （r=-0.756--0.772,P〈0.05）. But there were no line correlation between weekly average precipitation, wind speed and HFMD incidence （P〉0.05）. It suggested that average relative humidity, vapor pressure, temperature and sunshine hours were the main meteorological factors by ridge regression. Their influence size in proper order degree by medicines were relative humidity （0.273）, vapor pressure （0.220）, temperature （0.156） and sunshine hours （0.141）. Conclusions There are significant associations between meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD in Zhoushan island. The relative humidity, vapor pressure, temperature and sunshine hours are the main meteorological factors of the incidence of HFMD.
出处
《国际流行病学传染病学杂志》
CAS
2015年第3期179-182,共4页
International Journal of Epidemiology and Infectious Disease
基金
舟山市科技计划项目（2013C31071）
舟山市医药卫生科技计划项目（2013809）
关键词
手足口病
气象
岭回归
海岛
Hand, foot and mouth disease
Meteorology
Ridge regression
Island
