摘要
在世界经济重心东移的背景下,中国未来30年经济增长的总体态势、增长空间、动力机制和波动规律将对上海未来经济发展产生重要影响。中国经济增长的直接动力来自全要素生产率的提高。驱动中国全要素生产率增长的动力机制将主要来自技术创新和制度创新。技术创新的关键动力在于不断扩大的对外开放和强化国内竞争。对外开放加速技术扩散,增加竞争和放松管制有利于激励企业提高生产效率。虽然中国未来要素供给的优势不断减弱,但中国仍然可以依靠制度改革,提高要素的配置效率,实现经济的长期稳定增长。
In the context of the world economic center of gravity eastward,China＇s overall economic trend of development,room for growth,power mechanism and fluctuation rule in 30 years are going to have a great impact on Shanghai＇s future economic development.The power of China＇s economic growth comes directly from improvement of total factor productivity.The dynamic mechanism of the driving force of Chinese TFP growth will come mainly from：technological innovation and institutional innovation.At present,China＇s total factor productivity is only about 1/5 of that of the United States.Chinese TFP can continue to maintain a steady growth in the future.The key driving force of technological innovation lies in expanding opening-up and strengthening domestic competition.Opening-up accelerates technology diffusion,and increased competition and deregulation is beneficial for encouraging enterprises to improve production efficiency.Although the advantages of China＇s future factors supply continue to weaken,China can still rely on the institutional reform and efficiency factor improvement to achieve a long-term and stable economic growth.
出处
《科学发展》
CAS
2015年第5期5-16,共12页
Scientific Development
基金
上海市政府决策咨询研究重点课题(项目编号:2013-A-45)
关键词
经济增长
全要素生长率
中国经济
上海经济
Economic development
Total factor productivity
China＇s economics
Shanghai＇s economics
