摘要
本文基于淮河流域2004-2013年国控重点监测断面周数据,运用OLS法和最邻近匹配方法(NNM,Nearest Neighbor Matching)考察地级市行政边界对河流污染的影响。研究表明,淮河流域行政边界下游比上游污染更为严重,"行政边界效应"分别达到-13.764%(DO,溶解氧)、46.453%(COD,化学需氧量)和145.736%(NH3-N,氨氮)。使用双重差分法检验了"十一五"和"十二五"环境政策对淮河流域跨界污染问题的影响,发现纳入考核范围的COD的"行政边界效应"在"十一五"后期才有所改善,"十二五"政策则显著缓解了约束性指标COD和NH3-N的"行政边界效应"。研究对于打破淮河流域各地级市"逐底竞争"的考核机制、制定更为合理的考核办法、鼓励地级市间环境合作治理都有重要的现实价值。
Based on the state key monitoring sections＇ weekly data of Huaihe River Basin from 2004 to 2013 ,we apply OLS regression and nearest neighbor matching method, and test the effect of municipal administrative boundary on rivers＇ pollution. It turns out that the pollution level at the boundary downstream monitoring sites is higher than that at the boundary upstream monitoring sites, and the ＂administrative boundary effect＂ is-13. 764% （DO） ,46. 453 % （ COD）, 145. 736% （NH3-N）. We research the influence of ＂1 lth Five-Year Plan＂ and ＂12th Five-Year Plan＂ on Huaihe River Basin transboundary pollution with the method of Difference in Difference （ DID ）, and find that ＂boundary effect＂ of COD which is brought into ＂ llth Five-Year Plan＂ eases later. After bringing NH3-N into ＂ 12th Five-Year Plan＂, ＂boundary effect＂ of COD and NH3-N significantly reduce. The research is of great practical significance to break the assessment mechanism of local ＂race to bottom＂, draft a more reasonable assessment method, and encourage cooperative governance cross river environment problems etc.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第6期91-102,共12页
China Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71103057
71473068)
关键词
最邻近匹配法
河流污染
行政边界效应
双重差分法
环境政策
nearest neighbor matching method
rivers＇ pollution
administrative boundary effect
Difference in Difference
environmental policy
