摘要
目的：研究三级综合性医院门诊量变化规律,预测其变化趋势,为医院管理决策提供依据。方法结合序列平稳性、长期趋势和季节效应,利用SPSS 17.0统计软件建立门诊量预测模型ARIMA。结果经筛选得最优模型ARI-MA（1,1,0）×（0,1,1）12,对残差序列作自相关图,结果显示所选模型恰当。预测2013年门诊量为226.74万人次,实际门诊量为230.99万人次,相对误差为4.4%。结论三级综合医院门诊量存在着季节变化和逐渐增长趋势,适合用ARI-MA模型进行拟合,模型预测效果较好,可为医院领导层决策及门诊运行管理提供依据,从而有效指导工作计划与安排,该模型在门诊管理中的应用具有实效性及推广性。
Objective To study change rules of outpatient visits, to forecast the change tendency,and thus to provide a basis for hospital outpatient management decisions. Methods Combined with sequence stability with long-term trend and sea-sonal effect, by using SPSS 17. 0 to establish ARIMA model. Results After the screening we got the optimal model of ARIMA （1,1,0）×（0,1,1）12, and made autocorrelation diagram of the residual series. The Results showed that the selected model was proper. The predicted number of outpatient visits in 2013 was 2. 2674 million, while the actual number was 2. 3099 million, with the relative error 4. 4%. Conclusion There was a seasonal change and a growing trend for the number of outpatient visits, suit-able for using ARIMA model, and the model prediction effect was good. It could provide basis for operation management and de-cision-making for the hospital leadership, and effectively guide the work plan and arrangement. The model application has effec-tiveness and generalizability in the outpatient management.
出处
《中国医院统计》
2015年第3期183-185,189,共4页
Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics
关键词
三级综合医院
门诊量预测
ARIMA模型
Tertiary general hospital
Prediction of the number of outpatient visits
ARIMA model
