摘要
以能源综合碳排放系数表示基于低碳的能源消耗结构的变动,在解析降低煤炭消费比例对ESCEC影响原理的基础上,通过构建能源替代计量模型分析降低煤炭消费比例对ESCEC的灵敏度。结果显示,1980—2011年,石油、电力、天然气等可以有效替代煤炭,但这种替代对降低能源综合碳排放系数的贡献率变化较平缓;2011—2020年,煤炭产出弹性不断提高,使得石油、电力、天然气等与煤炭的替代弹性不断下降,导致ESCEC的降低率上升。
The change of energy consumption structure to low - carbon is defined by the energy synthesized carbon emis- sions coefficient （ ESCEC ） . Based on parsing the influence mechanism of reducing the coal consumption proportion on ES- CEC, this paper builds econometric model of energy substitution to determine the substitution elasticity between coal and others, then analyzes the sensitivity of reducing coal consumption proportion on ESCEC, and predicts it under the low car- bon economy target. Results show： in 1980 - 2011, oil, electricity and gas can substitute for coal effectively, but the con- tribution of the substitution to reduce ESCEC is subtle, and to reduce the total energy consumption and carbon emissions from large to small in turn for natural gas, oil and electricity. However, the addition of coal output elasticity makes the sub- stitution elasticity between coal and others fall, and leads the reduction ratio of ESCEC to increase while there is a sharp fall in the contribution to lower the total energy consumption and carbon emissions. So, cheapness or availability of coal deter- mines the energy structure characterized by coal - dominated in short time, and we should strengthen the foundation of the coal, develop the clean coal technology.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第13期234-240,共7页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
河北省社会科学基金项目"基于动态碳减排效应的河北省产业结构调整研究"(HB14YJ097)
河北省自然科学基金项目"京津冀一体化下河北省承接产业转移与产业结构动态演化升级研究"(G2015501064)
燕山大学青年教师自主研究计划课题"基于灵敏度分析的河北省能源结构调整的碳减排效应研究"(14SKA003)
关键词
能源替代
煤炭消费比例
能源综合碳排放系数
替代弹性
灵敏度
energy substitution
coal consumption proportion
the energy synthesized carbon emissions coefficient （ES-CEC ）
substitution elasticity
sensitivity
