摘要
矿企跨国并购中包含的信息不对称和风险问题,使得矿企跨国并购的谈判策略研究尤为重要。笔者将实物期权与讨价还价的演化学习理论相结合,运用演化博弈模型对有限理性的并购双方在信息不对称条件下的定价谈判优化策略进行分析。首先改进谈判贴现因子并引入外资限制因素,构建矿企跨国并购的无限期定价谈判演化博弈模型,并求出双方的预期收益矩阵。然后运用复制动态方程对并购方矿企和目标矿企预期收益进行计算,求出不同条件下二者的演化稳定策略,着重分析了并购双方矿企采用接受策略概率的影响因素和双方在不断学习中调整谈判策略的过程。最后以并购方矿企为例,对目标矿企的演化稳定策略进行分析,认为并购方矿企可以根据目标矿企策略调整的速度、报价以及自身价值评估等要素优化自身的定价谈判策略,在实现自身利益最大化的前提下完成并购。笔者构建的包含外资限制因素的矿企跨国并购定价谈判演化博弈模型,不仅是对定价谈判演化博弈模型的扩展,更能够对现实中的矿企跨国并购讨价还价策略提供理论指导。
The problems of information asymmetry and risks of mining enterprises cross-border M＆A make negotiation strategy study in mining enterprises cross-border M＆A particularly important. The author combines real options with evolutionary game model of bargaining , using evolutionary game model to analyze pricing negotiation optimization strategy of merger parties who are bounded rational under asymmetric information. Firstly, improving the negotiating discount factor and bringing in the foreign limiting factor variable, and constructing the indefinite pricing negotiation evolutionary game model of mining enterprises cross-border M＆A, and obtaining their expected benefits matrices. Then using the copy dynamic equation to calculate the expected benefits of the acquirer mining enterprises and the target mining enterprises, obtaining their Evolutionary Stable Strategy under different conditions, analyzing the influencing factors of the acceptance strategy probability which accepted by merger parties and the adjustment process of negotiation strategy in continuous learning. Finally, take acquirer mining enterprises as example, analyzing the Evolutionary Stable Strategy of target mining enterprises, considering aequirer mining enterprises can optimize their pricing negotiation strategy according to the policy adjustment speed, pricing, value assessment and other factors of target mining enterprises, completing the M＆A under the premise of maximizing their own interests. The mining enterprises cross-border M＆A pricing negotiation evolutionary game model constructed by the author contain foreign limiting factor, expanding the pricing negotiation evolutionary game model, and providing theoretical guidance for bargaining strategy of mining enterprises cross-border M＆A in the reality.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第7期91-97,共7页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"完善生态补偿机制研究"(项目编号:12&ZD072)
关键词
矿企跨国并购
演化博弈
定价谈判策略
演化稳定策略
Mining enterprises cross-border M＆A Evolutionary game Pricing negotiation strategies Evolutionary stable strategy
