摘要
利用1964—2013年大连地区6个气象站逐日降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall和Yamamoto检验及最大熵谱分析等方法,对大连地区暴雨的气候特征及变化规律进行分析。结果表明:大连地区3—12月均可出现暴雨,72.7%的暴雨出现在7—8月,7月暴雨出现最多,8月上旬是暴雨出现最集中的时期。4—8月各月暴雨日数均呈上升趋势,且4月暴雨日数上升最明显,8月次之,至9月暴雨日数呈下降趋势。大连地区各站年平均暴雨日数为1.8—2.8 d,暴雨日数分布从大连西北内陆向东南沿海地区逐渐增多,暴雨日数大值中心在庄河(2.8 d)。各站年暴雨日数均呈上升趋势,大连北部普兰店、东部长海和西南部旅顺地区年暴雨日数呈显著上升趋势,其他地区年暴雨日数上升趋势较弱。近50 a来,大连地区暴雨初日有所提前,暴雨终日变化不明显。年暴雨日数、暴雨强度和暴雨贡献率均呈不显著的上升趋势,且均从2003年以来增加明显,均有2.0—3.0 a的周期振荡;此外,年暴雨日数、暴雨强度和暴雨贡献率分别存在准12.5 a、准5.0 a和准16.7 a的振荡周期,仅年暴雨贡献率在1977年和1978年发生显著突变。
Based on the daily precipitation data at 6 observational stations during 1964-2013 in Dalian,climatic characteristics of rainstorm and its variation were analyzed using methods of a linear tendency estimation,a Mann-Kendall and a Yamamoto test and a maximum entropy spectrum analysis.The results show that the rainstorm often appears during March to December,and 72.7 %of them are from July to August,especially in July and in the first 10 days of August.The number of rainstorm day is in an increasing trend from April to August,especially in April and then in August,while it is in a decreasing trend in September.Annual mean rainstorm days in each station are between 1 .8-2 .8 days in Dalian,and rainstorm days increase gradually from the northwest inland to southeast coastal regions and its large value center （2.8 days）is located in Zhuanghe.The number of annual rainstorm days is in an increasing trend in each station,and the trend is more significant in Pulandian and Changhai as well as Lvshun stations than in the other stations.The starting date of rainstorm comes earlier in the recent 50 years,while the ending date of that has no obvious change.Annual rainstorm days,rainstorm intensity and rainstorm contribu-tion rate take on increasing trends,but the trends are not significant until 2003 .Since then it shows a 2-3 years qua-si-period oscillation.Besides,annual rainstorm days,rainstorm intensity and rainstorm contribution rate have 5 .0 years,12.5 years and 16.7 years quasi-period oscillation,respectively.Only rainstorm contribution rate has the sig-nificant abrupt changes in 1977 and 1978.
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2015年第3期75-80,共6页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
中国气象局2014年预报员专项(CMAYBY2014-012)
国家公益性行业专项(GYHY201206012)共同资助
