摘要
耕地是粮食生产最基本的生产资料,科学预测满足我国三大谷物基本自给的耕地需求,对我国粮食安全新政目标的实现具有非常重要的意义。根据FAO统计数据计算了1961-2009年间我国人均谷物直接、间接消费,以及全国谷物总消费所需耕地面积及其变化情况,并对我国人口高峰年满足居民谷物基本自给的耕地需求作了预测。主要结论如下：（1）我国居民人均直接谷物消费所需耕地呈单边下降趋势,具体从1961年的人均所需676.9m^2/人下降到2009年的318.6m^2/人,下降幅度达52.9%;（2）我国居民人均间接谷物消费所需耕地在过去的49年间呈急剧增长态势,从1961年的人均125.1m^2/人上升到2009年的355.6m^2/人,增长幅度达184.2%;（3）虽然我国人均谷物总消费所需耕地面积保持相对稳定,但由于人口总量的增长,我国居民谷物消费所需的耕地总面积从1961年的6.14亿亩上升到2009年的10.86亿亩;（4）人口高峰年,我国居民在平衡膳食模式和保持当前膳食摄入水平两种情景模式下,保障我国居民谷物基本自给分别需要耕地8.34亿亩和11.24亿亩,两者相差2.90亿亩。
Arable land is the basic material to product food. Scientifically forecasting the quantity of land required for self - supply three main grains and making effective policy to protect land have practical significance to realize the target of our new food security policy. Based on the residents,food consumption data of FAOSTAT,per capital direct land and indirect land need from the year 1961 to 2009,and the dynamic variation of the total land need for grain production were calculated,and the land need in the peak year of population was forecasted.The main results are as follows：（ 1） The demands of land for residents＇ direct grain consumption was decreased constantly from 676. 9m^2 per capital in 1961 to 318. 6m^2 per capital in 2009.（ 2） The demands of land for residents＇ indirect grain consumption was increased from 125. 1m^2 per capital in 1961 to 355. 6m^2 in 2009,increasing range reached 184. 2%.（ 3） Although the total demands of land for per capital grain consumption was remained relatively stable,but for the growth of population,the total land demands for residents＇ grain consumption was increased from 0. 614 billion mu in 1961 to 1. 086 billion mu in 2009;（ 4） It is predicted that at the balance diet mode land requirements for grain will be 0. 834 billion mu in the peak year of population,which is 290 millions mu less than the land demand at today＇s dietary pattern.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第8期1-6,共6页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2011B04114)资助
关键词
谷物
自给
耕地需求
平衡膳食
预测
grain
self-supply
arable land requirement
balance diet mode
prediction
