摘要
分析了仅依靠成本效益评估而选择的船舶风险控制方案的片面性,综合考虑安全、环保、经济收益、成本等多因素对方案所表现的影响,建立了基于灰色关联度的船舶风险控制方案多指标评价模型。论文所建立的该模型可以充分利用各方案的指标取值所包含的信息,并考虑专家主观因素对指标重要度的影响,通过主客观综合赋权的方法突出某个指标在方案排序中的作用。以国际海事组织对液化天然气船的综合安全评估报告所提供的风险控制措施为例,使用该模型进行方案优选,并与仅用成本效益评估所得结果比较;分析比较表明:论文所建立的多指标评价模型可以更全面评估风险控制方案,方法合理,使用简便可靠。
In order to give priority sequence among risk control options in the safety assessment of a ship, limitations of current approach based on cost-benefit analysis are reviewed, and a multiple attribute model based on gray correlation theory is proposed. The performance of any single attribute in an option can be represented with gray correlation grade and compared with the same attribute of the ideal option, so the overall performance of this option can be obtained through weighted summation of gray correlation grades of all attributes. The weight of every attribute may be determined according to subjective experiences of experts and actual data of attribute. In addition, a case study is introduced, and the priority sequence of the options, obtained through the proposed approach is compared with that through cost-benefit analysis, demonstrating the reasonability and validity of the proposed approach.
出处
《中国造船》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期193-200,共8页
Shipbuilding of China
