摘要
运用VAR脉冲响应函数,实证考量1992—2013年政府财政对农民工市民化的动态影响效应。结果表明:城镇固定资产给农民工市民化带来双向冲击,且冲击的正向效应较为显著。社会保障对农民工市民化促进作用逐步减弱。科教文卫支出对农民工市民化进程具有较大影响力,短期对农民工市民化有负向冲击效应,但长期看效果显著,正向冲击效应持续时间长且强度大。我国的财政分权度对市民化虽然存在正向冲击,但正向作用并不显著。政府只有明确自身承担的责任,建立财政保障机制和推进制度改革,才能解决好农民工市民化问题。
Through VAR impulse response function, this paper tries to make empirical considerations using government finance during 1992--2013 on the dynamic effect of urbanization of migrant workers. The results show that urban fixed assets bring bidirection- al impact to the urbanization of migrant workers, but the positive effect is more significant. The positive effect of social security on ur- banization of migrant workers weakens gradually. The science-education-culture-health expenditure has positive and durable influence on the urbanization of rural migrant workers. It has negative impact in the short-term but positive impact in the long-term. Despite fis- cal decentralization of our country has positive impact on urbanization of rural migrant workers, the positive effect is not significant. The government must define its own responsibilities, establish the financial security mechanism and promote the reform of the system in or- der to solve the problem of urbanization of migrant workers.
出处
《科技与经济》
2015年第4期56-60,共5页
Science & Technology and Economy
基金
湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目--"中国农地流转的综合效益评价:基于"双SE"框架"(项目编号:14A065
项目负责人:匡远配)成果之一
湖南省研究生科研创新项目--"财政体制对农民工市民化影响的实证分析"(项目编号:CX2015B254
项目负责人:罗超烈)成果之一
关键词
农民工市民化
政府财政支出
制度推进
脉冲响应
urbanization of migrant workers
government financial expenditure
system promotion
impulse response
