摘要
本文通过构建一个四部门的动态随机一般均衡模型,实证检验了随着利率和汇率市场化改革的协同推进,国内经济在受到不同冲击时,产出和通胀的反应。研究发现,当国内经济受到国内利率和技术的正向冲击时,对利率和汇率实施一定程度的管制有利于稳定经济增长和物价水平;当国内经济受到国外利率和技术的正向冲击时,加速市场化有利于及时抵御外部冲击的不利影响;而当国内经济受到国内和国外利率的负向冲击时,加速市场化面临着稳增长和控通胀不可兼得的情形。因此,为了确保宏观经济的稳健运行,政府以及货币当局应当实时关注我国经济面临的主要冲击,根据具体的经济形势,灵活推进利率和汇率市场化改革。
This paper establishes a 4- sector DSGE model to test the macro- economic effects of different degrees of marketization on exchange rate and inter- est rate when the economy is faced with domestic and foreign shocks. The re- suits show that when the economy is faced with positive interest rate and technol- ogy shocks from foreign countries, a certain degree of regulation on interest rate and RMB exchange rate is helpful for the promotion of economic growth and sta- bilization of commodity price; when the economy is faced with positive interest rate and technology shocks from the domestic, accelerating the marketization can neutralize the negative impacts from the foreign shocks. When the economy con- fronts both foreign and domestic negative interest rate shocks, promoting the growth and stabilizing the inflation cannot be achieved at the same time when marketization is accelerating. On the basis of these conclusions, China should al- ways pay close attention to the main shocks, and set an optimal degree of mar- ketization of both RMB exchange rate and interest rate according to the actual economic situation.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第8期156-167,共12页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD046)
国家社会科学基金一般项目(14BJY187)
教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目(12JZD029)
