摘要
利用IPRC高分辨率区域气候模式设计了两组不同初始时刻(3月和5月)的试验,分别对6-10月热带气旋活动的特征及其大尺度环境场进行了17年的模拟试验。结果表明,两组试验对大尺度环流场都具有较好的刻画能力;但对于热带气旋活动的影响则差异明显,5月份起报时,模式对热带气旋活动的年际变率,季节循环特征、热带气旋强度等热带气旋活动特征方面优于3月起报的结果。这一结果反映了使用临近预测信息,可以有效地提高汛期热带气旋季节预测的技巧,这也反映了汛期滚动预测订正工作的重要性。
Based on IPRC high resolution regional climate model, two sets of test on different initial moment （March and May） were designed and the test of 17 years for characteristics of tropical cyclone activity （June- Octobers） and the large-scale environment were respectively simulated. The results show that： two group of tests both has great capability in simulating the associated large-scare environmental conditions, but they have significantly different in the effect to the TCs＇s activity. The test which was simulated from May is better in TCs＇s annual variability, seasonal cycle, intensity and other TCs＇s activity characteristics than the test from March. It reflects that using the latest forecasting information can improve the TCs prediction skill in flood season, and it also reveals the importance of rolling prediction.
出处
《气象研究与应用》
2015年第2期8-14,20,共8页
Journal of Meteorological Research and Application
基金
973项目2012CB955901
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目CMAGJ2013M23
水利部公益性行业专项经费基金资助项目(201101033-2)
关键词
热带气旋
区域气候模式
季节预测
初始条件
tropical cyclone
regional climate model
seasonal prediction
initial conditions
