摘要
我国在经济新常态增速"换挡期"推动绿色低碳发展新方式,而中国产业结构低碳化是经济低碳转型背景下实现量化减排目标的必然选择,约束性减排目标必然会产生直接或间接的宏观经济成本。文章以经济增长和二氧化碳排放减少为目标函数,以排放强度、一般均衡、水资源、部门扩张、就业等为约束条件构建多目标规划模型,利用妥协规划方法迭代求解产出增长与CO2排放量之间联动关系,测度分析经济新常态不同产出增长率下产业结构低碳化模拟结果以及控制碳排放的宏观经济成本。结果证实通过产业结构低碳转型可以实现我国量化减排目标,而且我国产值增长率越大则实现减排目标的平均宏观经济成本越小,严控高碳行业增长的产业结构优化不仅可以实现较高水平的减排目标,还可以增加工业产值和就业人数。文章提出中国经济新常态这个"换挡期"需要保持一定的经济增长速度,及时调整高低碳行业间的"数量"比例,注重各行业能源效率与碳生产率等"质量"指标,注重和充分发挥技术创新的作用,在国际气候谈判中适时公布控制碳排放的宏观经济成本,争取合理的经济发展所需碳排放空间。
Under Chinese economy＇s new normal, green low-carbon development mode is ad- vanced. And low-carbon industrial structure is the inevitable choice of the realization of quantified emission reduction target in the low-carbon transition background and constraint-based emission reduction target inevitably leads to direct or indirect macroeconomic costs. This paper constructs the multi-objective programming model by taking economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions reduction as the objective functions and emissions intensity, general equilibrium, water resources, branch expansion and employment as constraint conditions. Then it analyzes the linkage between output growth and CO2 emissions by using the iteration method of multi-objective compromise programming, and measures simulation results of low-carbon transition of Chinese industrial structure and macroeconomie costs of controlling carbon emissions. The results confirm the achievement of emission reduction targets by low-carbon transformation of industrial structure, and show that greater output growth rate leads to lower average macroeconomic costs of the realization of emission reduction target; industrial structure optimization with strict control of high- carbon industry growth not only achieves emission reduction target at high level, but also results in the increase in industrial output and employment. It argues that under Chinese economy＇s new normal it needs to maintain economic growth rate to a certain extent, timely adjust the quantity proposition between high-carbon and low-carbon industries, focus on quality indicators such as energy efficiency and carbon productivity, pay attention to the role of technological innovation and timely announce macroeeonomic costs of carbon emissions control in international climate negotiations to strive for rational required emission space for economic development.
出处
《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第4期10-20,共11页
Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社科基金一般项目"国际碳交易视阈下碳排放责任界定及经济利益测度研究"(14BGJ010)
上海市哲学社会科学青年课题"基于成效评估的中国对外经济发展方式转变路径优化研究"(2014EJB001)
央财国际贸易重点学科带头人培养计划
关键词
经济新常态
低碳转型
宏观经济成本
产业结构优化
economy＇s new normal
low-carbon transition
macroeconomic cost
industrial structure optimization
