摘要
为了建立气象枣庄站近1971-2014年汛期极端降水事件各指数的年时间序列,以1971-2000年枣庄58 024站逐日降水资料为基础,通过定义95百分位点极端降水事件阈值,利用m-k和累积距平等方法对枣庄近44年汛期极端降水指数的突变特征进行分析。结果表明:枣庄汛期极端降水事件阈值为38.7mm,近44年枣庄汛期各极端降水指数具有不同的突变特点。日最大降水量在1997发生了增大性突变趋势,没有通过0.05显著性检验;极端降水日数没有发生突变;极端降水量与极端降水强度均发生了3次突变,21世纪以来极端降水量和极端降水强度均出现了增大趋势。日最大降水量、降水日数、降水强度的变化均可引起的极端降水量的变化,三者与降水量成较好的正相关,相关系数均达到了0.01的信度检验。
In order to establish Zaozhuang meteorological station of each index of nearly 1971 - 2014 in extreme precipi‐tation events in time series ,from 1971 to 2000 ,Zaozhuang 58024 stations daily precipitation data as the foundation , through the threshold of extreme precipitation events define 95 percentile using m - k and cumulative distance equal method in Zaozhuang in Recent 44 years in the flood season of extreme precipitation indices mutation characteristics were analyzed. The results showed that ：the extreme precipitation events threshold of the flood season in Zaozhuang was 38.7mm ;and the extreme precipitation index of the flood season in Zaozhuang during the past 44 years had differ‐ent features of the mutated change. The maximum daily precipitation at 1997 increased in mutated trend ,it did not pass the significance test of 0.05 ;There was no mutation frequency of extreme precipitation ;Extreme precipitation and ex‐treme precipitation intensity had 3 mutations ,extreme precipitation and extreme precipitation intensity showed a trend of increase since 21 Century.Daily maximum precipitation ,precipitation days and precipitation intensity all caused the change of extreme precipitation ,with three precipitation into a better positive correlation ,the correlation coefficient reached 0.01 reliability test.
出处
《山西农业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2015年第5期540-543,共4页
Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
汛期
极端降水
降水指数
突变特征
Flood
Extreme Precipitation
Precipitation index
Mutation characteristics
