摘要
城镇化和旅游发展是当今社会两大热点,也是资源型城市实现产业升级的两大举措。以资源型城市——淄博市为例分析城镇建设和旅游业发展概况及存在的问题,并运用单位根检验、协整分析、VAR模型对城镇化与旅游发展之间关联机制进行动态计量分析,然后以协同学理论为基础研究城镇化系统和旅游发展系统的有序度和协调性。VAR分析结果:脉冲响应函数显示城镇化水平和旅游发展水平相互影响,方差分解方法得出城镇化对旅游发展的影响强于旅游发展对城镇化的影响程度;协同学研究结果:城镇化系统和旅游发展系统的有序度不断增加,二者的协调性随着时间的推移逐渐增强。这些研究结论可为资源型城市再建设提供实践参考。
Nowadays urbanization and tourism are two measures for resource - based cities to achieve industrial u major hot spots in social development as well as two major pgrading With Zibo City as a case study, this paper analyzes the current situation and problems in urban construction and tourism development, and dynamically measures and analyzes the related mechanism between urbanization and tourism development by means of unit root test, co - integration analysis and VAR model before exploring the order and coordination Of urbanization system and tourism system based on synergetic theory. The VAR model research results show that the impulse response function indicates a mutual influence between urbanization level and tourism development level, and that the influence of urbanization on tourism development is stronger than vice versa. And the synergetic theory research results show that the order degrees of both urbanization system and tourism system keep on increasing while their coordination degrees gradually become stronger. These research findings can be used as practical reference for resource - based city reconstruction.
出处
《山东财经大学学报》
2015年第4期36-45,共10页
Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"中国沿海地区旅游产业结构与旅游产业集聚关联机理研究"(12CGL059)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大培育项目"我国海岛旅游开发与管理研究"(2012JDPY02)
中国海洋发展研究中心重大专项"我国滨海旅游环境承载力预警研究"(AOCOUC201103)
关键词
城镇化
旅游发展
VAR分析
协同学理论
urbanization
tourism development
VAR analysis
synergetic theory
