摘要
发展低碳经济的关键环节就是探究清楚碳排放的影响因素。根据IPCC碳排放计算指南缺省值确定能源碳排放系数,并系统分析了1988-2012年山西一次能源碳排放总量、碳排放结构以及碳排放强度的变化。在此基础上,运用kaya恒等式和LMDI方法对山西历年碳排放进行因素分解分析并对各因素进行定量研究。结果显示:山西省近25年来,碳排放总量逐年上升,人均碳排放量指数式上升,但能耗水平下降趋势明显;碳排放的4因素中,强度效应为山西省碳排放的主要贡献因子,经济效应为碳排放的抑制因素。人口效应及结构效应贡献较小;对进一步分解能源消耗强度显示,能源消耗强度的直接因素主要是第二产业。碳排放的减少主要得依靠第二产业能耗强度的下降。
Research on the relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions is crucial for the development of low carbon economy, the total carbon emission, carbon emission structure, as well as carbon emission intensity in Shanxi from 1978-2012 were systematically analyzed. On this basis, Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition method were used to analyze the influential factors of carbon emissions quantitatively. Results show that： in the past 25 years, along with the increase of the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions, the level of energy consumption？decreased contrarily; In the four influential factors, the energy consumption intensity is the main contributor of increases in carbon emissions, economy growth is a disincentive to carbon emissions. The influence of the population and the energy consumption structure was essentially slight; Further decomposition on the energy consumption intensity derived： The energy intensity of the secondary industry is the major influential factor of energy consumption intensity. Reduced carbon emissions rely mainly on secondary industry energy intensity decreased.
出处
《未来与发展》
2015年第8期102-107,77,共7页
Future and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金(71273209)
山西省重点建设学科项目(XK2014012)
