摘要
基于计算机模型的湿地公园规划具有低成本、高效率、多情景等优点,可以为规划研究提供初步方案的评优和选择。将CLUE-S模型运用到湿地公园规划中,结合生态保护情景和旅游开发情景的设定,对新济洲湿地公园进行2020年景观格局模拟预测,最后从湿地鸟类穿越的最小累积阻力模型角度,对两种情景进行了比较分析,得出如下结论:(1)对CLUE-S模型在研究区的适用性进行验证,经过计算,模拟的精度检验指数Kappa值为0.763,表明CLUE-S模型用来做新济洲湿地公园景观格局变化的预测模型具有良好的可靠性;(2)土壤有机质含量是推动新济洲湿地公园景观变化的最重要驱动因子,其影响力度远远高于其他因子;(3)通过建立MCR模型可以发现,两种情景都具有各自的优缺点,对于生态保护情景需要注意的是拓宽湿地鸟类穿越廊道,减少最小累积阻力路线生态缓冲区内的人为干扰。而对于旅游开发情景来说,构建整体的生态串联性则显得尤为重要,需要在中部大阻力区域为湿地鸟类穿越开辟一条良好的保护通道。
Wetland park planning based on computer models has the advantage of low cost, high efficiency, more scenarios, and the ability to provide preliminary scheme to estimate and select. This research applied CLUE-S model in wetland park planning, combined with ecological protection scenario and tourism development scenario, with an aim to predict the landscape pattern in 2020 of the Xinjizhou Wetland Park. At last, from the angle of minimum cumulative resistance, the two scenarios were compared and analyzed. The results are as follows. First, in the first scenario of ecological protection, the wetland and forest will comprise the major components of the park in 2020, occupying 47.6 percent and 39.9 percent of the total land area, respectively, while the land for grassland and built-up is only 10.9% and 0.6%. In the second scenario of tourism development, the land for wetland, forest, grassland and built-up in 2020 will be 46.9%, 34.7 %, 1.7% and 16.75, respectively. To verify the applicability of CLUE-S model in the study area, the accuracy test index of Kappa was calculated and its value reached 0. 763, indicating the CLUE-S model has good reliability in the study area. Secondly, the content of soil organic matter was the most important driving factor to promote landscape changes in wetland park and its effect was much higher than the other factors, including wetland height, slope, soil pH, organic matter content and the distance from the shoreline, away from the main road. Thirdly, by establishing the MCR model, it was found that the both two scenarios have their advantages and disadvantages. In the ecological protection scenario, the crossing corridor for wetland birds should be broadened and the man-made interference in the buffer of minimum resistance line should be reduced. Im the tourism development scenario, it is particularly important to construct the whole ecological series, and it needs to provide a good protection channel for wetland birds through the large resistance area in the central region. Though wetland park planning based computer models has its limitations, it can provide decision support for the spatial planning of wetland parks which are very sensitive to dramatic ecological changes. With the development of new computer technology based GIS models, scenario planning method will become an important tool for the making of wetland conservation and development plan in the future, thus exploring a new planning way to harmonious development of ecology and economy.
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第8期1263-1269,共7页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
国家自然科学基金"湿地公园生态适宜性研究"(31170660)
