摘要
洪涝灾害是发生频率较高、危害较重的一种自然灾害。因此,对洪涝灾害进行风险评估,能够有效减轻灾害损失,提高社会经济效益。本研究利用张家界地区桑植、永定、慈利3个站点1981—2010年的降水资料、张家界市主要农作物播种面积、洪涝受灾面积、成灾面积以及减产粮食量等数据,建立洪涝风险评估模型;根据逐日降水量数据的伽玛(gamma)分布特征,对其进行拟合,再分析计算张家界地区主要农作物需水量的特征值,对主要农作物进行洪涝风险评估。结果表明:张家界地区发生洪涝风险的概率很高,相对而言,发生低级别洪涝风险的概率更高;农作物遭受洪涝风险的概率自西向东逐渐增加,需水量越大的农作物遭受洪涝风险的概率越低。
Flood is one of the natural disasters which is of high frequency and can bring sever damages. Therefore, the risk assessment of floods can effectively reduce losses for us and improve the social and economic benefits. This study used the precipitation data of 3 sites of Zhangjiajie, including Sangzhi, Yongding and Cili from the year of 1981 to 2010, and the major crops planting areas, floods affected areas, inundated areas, and the reduction of quantity of food production as well as other data of Zhangjiajie to establish the risk assessment model of floods. The authors analyzed the risk of floods for the major crops by fitting the gamma distribution characteristics of the daily rainfall data, analyzing and calculating the eigenvalues of water demand of the local major crops. The results showed that there was a certain high probability of floods in Zhangjiajie with a relative higher probability of lower-level floods risk. The probability of flood risk for crops alsoincreased from west to east in the area, and the major crops with more demands of water had lower probability of flood risks.
出处
《农学学报》
2015年第9期125-129,共5页
Journal of Agriculture
基金
湖南省气象局2013年"短
平
快"课题基金支撑(XQKJ14B040)
