摘要
为了加强对高危地区的暴雨灾害防御指导,对陕西省暴雨灾害进行实时定量评估。利用陕西省自动站实时暴雨数据、历年暴雨灾情数据、地理数据和社会经济数据,采用主成分分析法、层次分析法等,给出了暴雨致灾因子、孕灾环境脆弱度、承载体脆弱度和抗灾力4个指标,并结合GIS技术,构建了陕西省农业暴雨灾害风险度实时评估模型。通过对2011年陕西省典型暴雨灾害实时风险度进行验证检验,表明该模型的评估结果与实际灾情较为一致。
The research aims to quantitatively assess the rainstorm disaster in real-time and provide effectiveguidance for the high- risk areas on rainstorm in Shaanxi Province. Based on the meteorological data ofrainstorm in Shaanxi, the historical rainstorm disastrous data, the geographic data and the socio- economicdata, the authors used the principal component analysis, entropy method and hierarchy process analysis toobtain the rainstorm disaster- inducing factor, hazard inducing environment vulnerability, bearing bodyvulnerability and resistance capacity. Meanwhile, combined with the GIS technology, the real- time riskassessment model of the rainstorm disaster was built in Shaanxi Province. The model was applied to the typicalrainstorm disaster verification in 2011, and the assessment results were consistent with the actual disastersituation.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2015年第25期241-246,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
陕西省科技发展计划项目"陕西暴雨灾害损失与影响预估研究"(2012K12-03-02)
陕西省气象局科技创新基金计划项目"延安地区2013年7月连续暴雨致灾特点分析"(2015M-2)
中国气象局现代气候业务建设试点项目"暴雨洪涝灾害风险普查"
