摘要
通过T639模式预报产品在内蒙古地区降水量、2m温度、相对湿度和10m风向、风速及降水过程预报效果的适用性研究,得出以下结论,温度和相对湿度预报的准确率较风向、风速明显偏高,温度和相对湿度预报的误差系统偏小,风速预报误差偏大的概率较大;降水量的预报准确率随降水等级增加而递减,对小雨而言,模式漏报率小于空报率,多报降水的偏差和少报降水的偏差相近。在预报要素空间分布上,风向预报的偏差顺时针偏转,其夹角小于45°,温度预报偏差总体偏小,相对湿度预报偏差由西向东表现为"+、-、+、-"的分布特征;小雨和中雨落区预报偏大,暴雨落区预报偏小;贝加尔湖冷涡强度的预报偏强,西太平洋副热带高压的强度预报偏弱,影响范围偏西偏北。
By evaluating of the ability to predict the 2-m temperature and relative humidity,10-m wind direction,and wind speed,as well as T639 model products of two precipitation processes in Inner Mongolia,it is concluded：the forecast accuracy of temperature and relative humidity is better than those of the wind direction and wind speed;the errors of temperature and relative humidity forecast are smaller systematically;the probability of larger wind speed forecast error is high relatively;the precipitation forecast accuracy decreases with the rainfall intensity;in terms of the light rain,the missing alarm rate is lower than the false alarm rate,and the deviations of both overestimated and underestimated rainfall intensity are about the same;the deviations of wind direction are along the clockwise with the angle less than 45°;the temperature deviation is smaller in general,and the distribution of the relative humidity forecast deviation is＇＇＋- ＋-＂from west to East.The rain falling area is larger for light and moderate rains,and smaller for others.The predicted Lake Baikal cold vortex strength is stronger;the West Pacific subtropical high is weaker;and its influence range is farther north and west.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2015年第4期647-658,共12页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
中国气象局预报员专项项目(CMAYBY2013-012)
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2014BS0403)资助
