摘要
不同属性农产品的价格形成和波动成因存在差异。本研究采用1965-2013年香蕉、橙子、大米、小麦、棕榈油和大豆油的国际市场年度价格数据,考察了国际农产品长期价格形成与波动的影响因素,并在此基础上分析了各因素对2004年后农产品价格上涨的贡献度。研究结果表明:国际农产品价格在波动中上升,长期上升趋势明显,短期波动剧烈;上期价格是影响农产品当期价格的主要因素,六种农产品上期价格对当期价格均有显著影响,平均影响水平0.5,且对水果的影响最显著;石油价格显著影响植物油和小麦价格,不影响水果价格,原因是油价上升引致谷物、植物油等生物燃料替代能源需求扩张;上期库存对除香蕉外的其他五种农产品价格均有显著影响,对谷物影响最显著,对水果影响最弱;收入、通货膨胀仅分别对水果、谷物价格有影响。在国际农产品价格不断上涨的形势下,为保持国内农产品价格稳定,建议适当提高农产品价格上涨容忍度、增强国内农产品供求信息透明度和加强国内农产品储备。
Price form ation and fluctuation of agricultural products w ith different attributes are different. B ased on 1965-2013annualdataofbanana,orange,rice,wheat,palm oilandsoybeanoil,thispaperanalyzedthefactorsaffecting the long-term price form ation and fluctuation of agricultural products on the international m arket by estim ating the long-term elasticities and the contributions of these factors to each agricultural product price from 1997-2004 to 2005-2013.Resultsshow that1）pricesofagriculturalproductsontheinternationalmarketincreasewithfluctuations;2） T he price of previous period is the m ain factor affecting current price, each agricultural product’s previous price significantlyaffectitscurrentpriceandtheimpactonfruitsismoresignificantthanongrainsandvegetableoils;3）Due totheexpansionofdemandforgrainsandvegetableoilcausedbyincreasingoilprice,oilpricesignificantlyaffectsthe vegetable oil and w heat prices, but not fruit prices;4） Stock-to-use ratios significantly affect all agricultural products except banana and the im pact on grains is m ore significant than on others;A nd 5） incom e and inflation have significant im pacts on fruit and grain prices. Facing the increasing prices of agricultural products on the international m arket, to m aintain the dom estic prices stable, this paper provides the follow ing suggestions：increasing price increase tolerance appropriately, strengthening the transparency of supply and dem and inform ation on dom estic agricultural products and enhancing the dom estic agriculturalproductreserves.
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第5期790-795,共6页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD048)
教育部博士点基金项目(20110146110008)
国家现代农业(柑橘)产业技术体系(MATS)专项(CARS-27-07B)
关键词
农产品
价格形成
影响因素
贡献度
水果
谷物
植物油
agricultural products
long-term price form ation
factors
contribution
fruit
grain
vegetable oil
