摘要
自2007年国务院发布《国家应对气候变化方案》以来,我国政府制定并实施了一系列适应气候变化政策,有力推动了我国适应气候变化工作的快速发展。本文通过对我国已经发布的适应政策进行梳理,采用适应政策组成要素评估方法,对适应政策的目标设定、适应能力与资源评估、决策、实施与评估等4个阶段进行系统评估,结果表明:根据适应政策要素组成评估框架,单个适应政策可获得的最高综合评分为38分,我国发布的8项针对性的适应气候变化政策平均得分为15.8分,约为总分的41.6%,与美国、英国和澳大利亚的57项适应政策平均评分为总分的37%相当,整体处于相近水平。从适应政策制定的四个阶段来看,适应政策的目标设定平均为11.5分,适应能力与资源评估平均为2.6分,决策平均为6.6分,实施与评估平均为9.2分。适应政策的目标设定较清晰,适应能力与资源评估是主要的短板。同时,提出我国适应政策仍存在的问题包括:我国适应政策的目标与对应的适应能力与适应资源不匹配,需要加强适应气候变化人力资源、资金、社会资本、自然资源和实物资本等方面的投入。我国适应政策决策重视利益相关方和影响评估基础,但适应政策中忽视了对非气候因素的评估,对当前气候变化领域的科学假设和不确定性考虑不足,对适应决策很关键的未来风险评估仍欠缺。适应政策推广部署较好,我国部门适应政策向下传达渠道明确,政策主要由省级政府和相关机构负责实施,实施机制相对较完善,但监督与评估不足,适应政策多数对监督机制、成效评估没有明确的表述。
Since the State Council issued the ＂National Climate Change Program＂ in 2007, Chinese government has formulated and implemented s series of policies to climate change adaptation and strongly promoted the adaptation development. This paper reviews the issued adaptation policies, adopting to the elements evaluation method, from the goal setting, stock-taking, decision-making, and implementation and evaluation to assess those specialized adaptation policies. The results suggests that the average scores of 8 specialized adaptation policies of China are 15. 8, 41. 6% of the full marks （38） of single adaptation policies. It is comparable with the average scores of 57 adaptation policies of US, UK and Australian, which accounted for 41. 6% of full marks. From the four stages of adaptation policy-making, the average scores of goal setting, stock-taking, decision-making, and implementation and evaluation are 11. 5, 2. 6, 6. 6 and 9. 2. And there are several problems as follows： mismatching the goal of adaptation polices and adaptation capacity and resources, more human resources, finance resources, social capital and real capital should put into the adaptation action;the adaptation policy-making think highly of stakeholder and impacts assessment in China. However, the adaptation policies ignore the non-climate factor, scientific hypothesis, uncertainty and risk assessment of climate change; Employment of adaptation policies are good and downward channel of adaptation policies are clear by provincial government in China. But most of adaptation policies fall short of supervision and evaluation.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第9期8-12,共5页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家科技支撑计划"气候变化对农业生产影响与风险评估技术"(编号:2012BAC19B10)
国家科技支撑计划"气候变化谈判关键议题的支撑技术研究"(编号:2012BAC20B04)
国家科技支撑计划"国家适应气候变化方法学研究和综合技术体系构建"(编号:2012BAC09B04)
中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目"我国农业领域适应气候变化技术清单与研发部署研究"(编号:1113113)
关键词
气候变化
适应
政策
评估
climate change
adaptation policy
assessment
China
