摘要
文章提出中国水利绿色现代化发展的内涵、目标与特征,着眼于中国水利发展的历史全局,分四个阶段探讨了建国以来中国水利绿色现代化发展历程,全面剖析了中国水利绿色现代化发展历程演变及其变化特征;在此基础上,从经济、社会及自然水生态三个维度,对水利绿色现代化发展评价指标体系进行系统设计,定量评价了建国以来的水利绿色现代化发展进程。并进一步明确了水利绿色现代化的战略定位,依据中国中长期水利发展规划,测算出2010-2050年中国水利绿色现代化发展进程,提出水利绿色现代化"三步走"战略构想,勾画了2020年、2030年和2050年的水利绿色现代化发展战略目标。从评价结果来看,2000年,水利绿色现代化综合实现程度为29%;2005年,水利绿色现代化综合实现程度提高到42%;2010年,水利绿色现代化综合实现程度提高到47%,表明2000-2010年是水利绿色现代化的快速提升期。未来中国水利绿色现代化可以考虑按"三步走"战略布局:到2020年,水利绿色现代化取得重大进展,综合实现程度达到80%,有条件地区率先实现水利绿色现代化;到2030年,水利绿色现代化综合实现程度达到90%左右,基本实现水利绿色现代化;到2050年,中国将实现人水和谐、青山绿水,全面建成水利绿色现代化。从国家对水利建设与管理的高度重视中可以预见,中国将进一步加快水利绿色现代化发展步伐,预期在2030年或更早时间基本实现水利绿色现代化。
The connotation of China＇ s water conservancy green modernization was given, the goal and the characteristics of China＇ s water conservancy green modernization were given. Within the context of China＇ s overall water conservancy development, the paper discussed the evolution progress of China＇s water conservancy green modernization from four stages in 1949-2050, and analyzed the changing characteristics of development stage of China＇ s water conservancy green modernization systematically;then, the index system to evaluate the green modernization process of China＇ s water conservancy was designed from three aspects including economics, society and natural water ecology. Through quantitative evaluation, the achievable development process of water conservancy green modernization was estimated based on the developing situation and planning of water conservancy. Then, the strategic positioning and＂three steps＂ strategic conception of China＇ s water conservancy green modernization were given, the strategic goal of China＇ s water conservancy green modernization was given in 2020, 2030 and 2050. The results show that the degree of water conservancy green modernization is 29% in 2000, 42% in 2005 and 47% in 2010,which indicates the fast development of water conservancy green modernization during 2000-2010. In future, the strategic layout of water conservancy green modernization can be realized with three steps, the degree of green modernization will reach 80% by 2020, 90% by 2030 and eventually 100% by 2050. Conditional region takes the lead in realizing water conservancy green modernization by 2020, and each region basically realizes water conservancy green modernization by 2030. by 2050, China will ultimately achieve water conservancy green modernization with harmonious relation between people and water. Since the state attaches great importance to the construction and management of water conservancy, the pace of China ＇ s water conservancy green modernization will speed up in the next decade, and the goal of water conservancy green modernization will essentially be realized by 2030 or earlier.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第9期114-123,共10页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"最严格水资源管理制度框架下流域初始水权分配研究"(编号:13YJCZH195)
北方工业大学科研启动基金项目"中国水利发展评价体系与战略构想"(编号:14NCUT18)
关键词
水利
绿色现代化
发展阶段
评价指标
战略构想
water conservancy
green modernization
development stage
evaluation index
strategic conception
