摘要
能源是国民经济发展和社会进步的重要物质基础，在经济增长初期，能源的投入能够带动经济快速增长；而当经济增长到一定阶段以后，由于能源本身的不可再生性，能源消费的各类问题开始得到关注。基于此，文章构建我国29个省区市1990-2012年面板数据库，并运用协整分析、面板误差修正模型及完全修正OLS和动态OLS方法，考察在政府“看得见的手”的干预下，影响能源消费的主要因素。研究结果表明，经济增长是所有影响能源消费因素中较为主要的因素，且在产业结构和就业结构中第二产业及其就业量的高比重也是能源消费量偏高的主要因素。相比之下，对外贸易、外商直接投资等因素对能源消费的影响则相对较弱。此外，政府干预在长期内并不理想，不但没有实现既定节能目标，反而促进了能源消费的增加。因此，政府应更多地通过技术进步、自主创新等实现经济增长对能源消费的影响；与此同时，通过降低第二产业的比重来间接优化产业结构，从而提高能源利用率。
Energy is the important foundation of economic development and social progress for one country. During the early stage of economic growth, the input of energy could lead to fast economic growth, while after a certain period of economic growth, some issues of energy consumption start to get attention because of its non-renewable nature. Based on this, this paper tries to construct a panel data bank of 29 provinces or districts in China from 1990 to 2012 and investigates the determinants of energy consumption under the 'visible hand 'government intervention by using the co-integration analysis and error correct model of panel data and the method of completely correct OLS and dynamic OLS. The results show that economic growth is the main factor of energy consumption and that the outstanding proportion of the second industry in industry structure is also one of the main factors. Comparatively, the influence of factors like foreign trade and foreign direct investment is relatively weaker. In addition, we also find that government intervention is not an ideal way in the long run because it not only doesn't achieve the target of energy saving but increases energy consumption. Therefore, in this paper we suggest that government develop the technology advancement and innovation to achieve the effect of economic growth on energy consumption. Meanwhile, by decreasing the proportion of the second industry, government should optimize the industry structure and then increase the energy efficiency.
出处
《创新》
2015年第5期65-71,127-128,共7页
Innovation
基金
国家社科基金重大项目<开放经济条件下我国虚拟经济运行安全法律保障研究>(14ZD148)
关键词
政府干预
能源消费
经济增长
对外贸易
外商直接投资
Government Intervention
Energy Consumption
Economic Growth
Foreign Direct Investment
