摘要
随着风力发电功率占比日益提高,风电功率的波动对电网安全运行的影响日益加剧。加大电网的旋转备用容量能够解决风电场出力波动的问题,但直接增加了电网运行成本。因此,对于含大规模风电接入的电网,风速及风电功率的准确预测对保证系统安全稳定运行、降低风电消纳成本有着至关重要的作用。在综合分析大量国内外文献资料的基础上,对风速及风电功率预测方法的研究现状进综述,总结常用预测算法的优缺点,给出风速及风电功率预测误差的评价指标体系,并对风速及风电功率预测的发展前景进行展望。
With the rapid growth of wind power connected to the power system,the influence of wind power fluctuation on power grid safety is increasing.Increasing the spinning reserve capacity of power grid can solve the problem of wind power output fluctuation,but increase the power grid operation cost directly.Therefore,for the power grid containing large scale wind power,the accurate forecast of wind speed and wind power has a vital role to ensure the safe and stable operation system, and reduce the cost of wind power.By analyzing vast amount of literatures at home and abroad,a brief review of wind speed and wind power prediction methods is given.Advantages and disadvantages of commonly used prediction methods are analyzed. Furthermore,the evaluation index system for prediction errors of wind speed and wind power is summarized.At last,status and trend of wind speed and wind power forecasting are summarized and prospected.
出处
《山东电力技术》
2015年第7期26-32,共7页
Shandong Electric Power
关键词
风速
风电功率
预测
物理方法
统计方法
误差
wind speed
wind power
prediction
physical method
statistical method
error
