期刊文献+

本轮石油价格变动分析及趋势预测 被引量:1

An Analysis of Oil Price Variation in the Last Stage and Its Trend Prediction
下载PDF
导出
摘要 2014年下半年,受美国页岩油技术突破、世界经济疲软、国际资本做空市场等因素影响,国际原油市场价格大幅下跌,世界能源与贸易秩序面临重大调整。在分析本轮石油价格变动带来的巨大影响基础上,研究了导致石油价格变动的主要影响因素,并对未来一段时期石油价格的变动趋势做了整体判断,最后提出了相关政策建议。 In the second half of 2014, the international crude oil market price collapsed drastically due to the technology breakthrough of US shale oil, weak global economy, international capital shorting market and other factors, and the world energy and trade order need to be adjusted. Based on analyzing the huge impact of oil price variation in this last stage, this paper studies the main influencing factors, presents a whole judgment on the oil price variation trend for a period in the future, and finally puts forward relevant policy suggestion.
作者 钟玮
出处 《价格月刊》 北大核心 2015年第9期46-49,共4页
关键词 石油价格 变动分析 趋势预测 oil prices variation analysis trend prediction
  • 相关文献

参考文献4

二级参考文献36

  • 1WTRG: Oil Price History and Analysis. http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm.
  • 2杰奎斯·克莱默,德贾瓦德·沙雷西-伊斯法哈里,著.王芳,译.石油市场模型[M].北京大学出版社,.2004:11.
  • 3HOTELLING. H. The economics of exhaustible resources [J]. Joumal of Political Economy, 1931, 39:137 - 175.
  • 4阿尔伯托·克劳,著.王国梁,等,译.石油经济与政策[M].石油工业出版社,2004(3).
  • 5KRUGMAN P. The energy crisis evisited, http://web.mit.edu/ krugman/www/opec.html.
  • 6IMF, World Economic Outlook :Globalization and Inequality, October 2007.
  • 7罗伯特·基欧汉,著,苏长和,等,译.霸权之后-世界政治经济中的合作与纷争.上海世纪出版集团,2001:229.
  • 8Michael A. Alexander. Oil Prices,the Kondratiev Cycle and Peak Oil. http://www.safehaven.com/article-5008.htm.
  • 9《财经》杂志对艾尔·巴德里的专访.欧佩克:高油价与供需无关.《财经》网络版,2007-10-25.
  • 10范英、焦建玲:《石油价格与实证》,科学出版社2008年版.

共引文献31

同被引文献10

  • 1APICORP. Modeling OPEC fiscal break-even oil prices: new findings and policy insights[J/OL]. Economic Commentary. 2013(08). http://www.apic.com/Research/Commentaries/2013/ Commentary V08 N08-09_2013.pdf.
  • 2TEECE D J. OPEC behavior: an alternative view[A].//GRIFFEN G M, TEECE D J. OPEC Behavior and World Oil Prices[C]. London: George Allen & Unwin Ltd, 1982:64-93.
  • 3UBS. Oil Market Dynamics[EB/OL]. UBS Global Investment Solutions, 2015-03. https://www.static-ubs.com/global/en/asset_ management/gis/investoutlook/jcr_content/par/teaserbox O/ teaser_32c0/linklist/link. 1417216094.file/bGluay9wYXRoPS9jb250 ZWSOL2RhbS91 YnMvZ2xvYmFsL2Fzc2VOX21 hbmFnZW 1 lbnQ vaWSmcmFzdHJ 1 Y3R1 cmUvMTUwMzI3LWdhdil 0aGVtYXRp.
  • 4IMF. Saudi Arabia international reserves and foreign current liquidity[EB/OL], https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/ IRProcessWeb/data/sau/eng/cursau.htm.
  • 5MAHMOUD Habboush. A breakdown of the 2016 Saudi budget and its implications[N/OL]. Bloomberg, 2015-12-2912016-1-28]. http ://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-2 8/ a-breakdown-of-the-2016-saudi-budget-and-its-implications.
  • 6CLAYTON Blake, LEVI Michael A. Fiscal breakeven oil prices: uses, abuses, and opportunities for improvement[EB/OL]. Council on Foreign Relations, 2015-11 [2016-01-25]. http://i.c fr.org/content/ publications/attachments/Breakeven__Oil_Paper.pdf.
  • 7The Wall Street Journal. OPEC: the cartel is standing pat on production, for now[EB/OL]. [2016-01-27]. http://graphics.wsj. com/lists/opec-meeting.
  • 8IMF. Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia[EB/OL]. http://www.imf.org/extemal/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/ eng/mreo0515.htm.
  • 9Deutsch Bank. EM oil producers: breakeven pain thresholds[EB/ OL]. https://etf.deutscheam.com/DEU/DEU/Download/Research- Global/2dd759fe-b80a-4f07-a51 c-dd02 f4d384e5/EM-oil- producers-breakeven-pain.pdf.
  • 10吴越涛.国际油价平衡点60-80美元[J].小康(财智),2015,0(2):21-21. 被引量:1

引证文献1

二级引证文献4

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部