摘要
采用相对发展率、泰尔系数、加权变异系数、集中系数等指标结合ESDA分析方法和ArcGIS的标准差椭圆分析功能对中部地区2000年~2013年经济发展时空差异和演变进行分析;同时运用G（1,1）模型对其后5y经济发展的时空差异进行预测.研究表明：中部地区经济发展的绝对差异和相对差异均十分明显并存在进一步扩大的趋势;主要大城市对区域经济发展的影响重大;2005年以后中部各市的经济发展开始进入一个非均衡的状态;中部地区南北方向的经济发展快于东西方向,经济发展的平均中心位于信阳市的西南部;预测表明未来中部地区经济发展的差异会进一步扩大.最后,指出要实现区域的可持续发展就必须实现区域的协调发展和特色发展.
In this study, the spatial and temporal diversities and evolution of economic development were analyzed in the Central region from 2000 to 2013. ESDA analysis and ArcGIS standard deviation ellipse analysis capabilities were utilized in combination with the relative development rate, Theil coefficient, the weighting coefficient of variation, concentration factor and other indicators. Besides, G （1,1） model was established to predict the spatial and tempo- ral differences in economic development of the subsequent five years. Results show that the absolute differences and relative differences in the economic development of the Central region are significant and there is a trend of expansion; The major cities have crucial impact on regional economic development; Economic development of cities in Central region has entered into disequilibrium since 2005; The development rate of Central region economy in the north-south direction is faster than that in the east-west direction, with the average economic development center located in the southwest of Xinyang City; Difference of economic development in the Central region will be further expanded in the future as forecasted, suggesting the necessity of realizing the coordinated and characteristic development for the sustainable development of the region.
出处
《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2015年第5期778-785,791,共9页
Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41301586)
关键词
中部
经济发展
时空差异
预测
central region
economic development
spatial and temporal differences
forecast
