摘要
目的应用控制图法进行手足口病的预警界值分析,在湖北省手足口病开展预警研究,为湖北省手足口病防控的关口前移提供理论依据。方法利用国家传染病报告信息管理系统,收集整理2008—2014年湖北省手足口病报告数据,建立预警数据库,采用移动百分位数法建立预警模型,通过计算灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值和阴性预测值及绘制ROC曲线,优选出湖北省手足口病合适预警界值。结果手足口病的合适预警界值为P65,在该预警界值下的灵敏度为91.11%,特异度为100%,阳性预测值为100%,阴性预测值为63.64%。结论传染病预警界值的设定应根据传染病发病特点并结合当地疫情信息进行优选,以提高传染病疫情监测的预警能力。
Objective To study the application of control graph alert technique in early warning for hand-footmouth disease（HFMD） in Hubei province and to provide evidences for pre-real-time prevention and control of HFMD in the province. Methods Data on reported HFMD cases in Hubei province from 2008 to 2014 were extracted from National Information Management System for Communicable Disease Reporting. Moving percentile method was used to detect outbreak or epidemic of HFMD. After calculating sensitivity, specificity ,positive predictive value and negative predictive value, and receiver operating characteristic curve （ROC）, the premium alert threshold for the disease was estimated. Results The premium alert threshold for HFMD was 65th percentile （P65） and with the threshold, a early warning model was established, with a sensitivity of 91.11%, a specificity of 100%, a positive predictive value of 100%, and a negative predictive value of 63.64%. Conclusion Application of a premium alert threshold selection should consider local disease report and the characteristics of infectious diseases to upgrade early detection capability.
出处
《中国公共卫生》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第10期1324-1326,共3页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
关键词
手足口病
ROC曲线
预警界值
hand-foot-mouth disease
receiver operating characteristic curve
early detection threshold
