摘要
经济全球化的迅猛发展推动金融开放的进程加快,而金融开放是减小还是增大经济波动,抑或有什么因素影响金融开放与经济波动间的关系成为经济金融学研究的热门课题。本文将宏观金融风险引入Aghion et al.(2004)开放经济体模型,分析发现,发展中国家在宏观金融风险程度较低时实施金融开放能减小经济波动,运用门槛回归模型对48个发展中国家1987-2006年年度数据计算得出,当宏观金融风险达到40.33的门槛值后,发展中国家扩大金融开放就能取得较好效果。
The trend of global economic integration accelerates the process of financial openness. Whether financial openness reduces or increases economic fluctuations, and what are the elements that influence the relationship between financial openness and economic fluctuation become the hotspot in financial academic circle. Based on Aghion et al.（2004）‘ the small open economy model framework＇, we put macro-financial risk into the model, using the threshold model measurement, with annual panel data of 1987-2006 in 48 developing countries, we find that when the macro-financial risk is low, financial openness would make economic fluctuation down. When macro-financial risk reached 40.33（the thresholds）,financial openness would have positive effect on economy in developing countries.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第10期43-54,共12页
Studies of International Finance
关键词
经济波动
金融开放
宏观金融风险
门槛回归模型
Economic Fluctuation
Financial Openness
Macro-Financial Risk
Threshold Regression
