摘要
机动车尾气排放逐渐成为中国空气污染的主要来源,本文利用2005—2013年中国城市日度数据,实证分析了油价对汽车使用和空气污染的影响效应。实证结果表明油价的提高无法改变一个地区的整体空气质量,这主要是因其对私人汽车、公共汽车以及摩托车无显著效应,而仅通过非私人汽车和出租车的使用变化来影响空气质量。在使用API年度汇总数据、考虑油价对机动车购买影响、选择油价工具变量进行2SLS回归以及删除限行或地铁城市样本后,这一结果仍具有稳健性;在安慰剂检验中,油价对工业污染排放无显著影响,表明其并未通过其他非机动车渠道影响空气质量。据此,本文认为不同的油价污染效应在于各类机动车沉淀成本不同,这一解释得到了基于收入效应和替代效应的分析的证实。本文为成品油消费税的节能减排目标提供了一定的启示:在私人汽车快速增长的背景下,政府不应简单依赖税费调节燃油消费,应通过财政补贴等方式鼓励清洁能源的发展。
Emissions from motor vehicles have gradually become the main source of air pollution in China. Using the daily data of Chinese cities from 2005 to 2013, this paper analyzes the gasoline price effects on the use of motor vehicle and the air pollution empirically. The results show that fuel costs could not change the overall air quality in a region, which is mainly because of that it had no significant effect on the private cars, buses and motorcycles, but it can affect air quality by changing the use of the non-private cars and taxis. After using the API annual summary data, considering gasoline price impact on the car purchase, choosing IV of the gasoline price and making a 2SLS regression, and removing the restrictions or metro city samples, the results still have robustness. And gasoline price does not significantly influence on the industrial pollution, which passes the placebo effect, suggesting that the gasoline price does affect the air quality by the vehicle use, and it cannot influence and has nothing to do with industrial pollution. Based on this, the paper argues that different fuel pollution effects are due to the different sunk costs, but have nothing to do with income levels or upfront input costs, which is confirmed by the income effect and substitution effect. Under the background of the rapid growth of private cars, the government should not simply rely on product oil fuel consumption tax, and should encourage the development of clean energy through financial subsidies.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第10期100-114,共15页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目"交通设施的空间网络特征及其异质性产业集聚效应研究"(批准号71573218)
教育部人文社会科学基金一般项目"基础设施产业集聚效应的微观基础:基于空间数据与方法的经验研究"(批准号13YJA790061)
国家社会科学基金青年项目"新常态下促进区域经济发展的省以下财政分权政策研究"(批准号15CGL014)
关键词
油价
空气污染
汽车使用
传导途径
gasoline price
air pollution
motor vehicle use
influencing channel
