摘要
加快建立全国碳排放交易市场已经成为中国应对气候变化的重要手段之一。由于我国各地区资源禀赋和社会经济发展存在巨大差异,全国统一碳市场的建立对区域经济发展的影响存在很大的不确定性。本文将碳排放交易优化模型和能源-环境-经济多区域CGE模型相结合,并考虑了六种碳市场情景,包括历史排放、支付能力、十二五规划三种配额分配准则和免费分配方式、能源行业免费发放高耗能行业拍卖的混合方式两种配额分配方式,模拟并评估了统一碳市场的建立在促进区域经济协调发展中的作用。研究表明,全国GDP和居民福利在碳市场情景下比无碳市场情景分别上升0.027%-0.056%和323.73-507.56亿元,统一碳市场能够有效降低整个社会的宏观经济成本,改善各地区居民福利,缩小地区经济差距。与无碳市场相比,统一碳市场下所有行业产出下降幅度均减小,ET情景下总产出将比NET情景上升0.335%-0.473%。其中电力行业尤为显著,NET情景下产出下降约6.079%-6.44%,而在ET情景下产出下降减缓至1.829%-1.895%。同时,碳交易将带来省际间大规模的资金转移,东部地区约有45 802万元-392 509万元资金将随着碳交易流向中西部地区,其中资源地区可获得的资金流入为39 720万元-174 190万元,有利于这些地区进行减排技术投资。另一方面,碳市场对各地区的影响与初始配额的分配机制密切相关。东部地区在支付能力分配准则下从碳市场获益最明显,而中西部地区则在历史排放和十二五规划准则下由于碳市场的建立而获益更多。免费分配与拍卖方式的比较结果表明,免费分配与拍卖结合的混合分配方式是我国碳市场建立初期较优的配额分配方式。
The establishment of nationwide carbon market has become one of the important means to combat climate change in China.Given the diversity of resource endowments and spatial heterogeneity of economic development across different regions,there is great uncertainty about the impacts of a nationwide carbon market on regional economies. This paper develops a multi-regional CGE model,which is in combination with an emissions trading model,to simulate and assess the impacts of a nationwide carbon market on the coordinated development of regional economies. Six emissions trading（ ET） scenarios are designed according to different initial quota allocation mechanisms,including three allocation criteria of Historic Emission,Ability to Pay,Twelfth Five Year Plan,and two allocation methods of free allocation and hybrid allocation—free allocation with energy sectors while auction with energy-intensive sectors. The results show that national GDP and welfare increase by 0. 027%- 0. 056% and 32. 373- 50. 756 billion yuan under ET scenarios,respectively,as compared with the non-emissions trading（ NET） scenarios. It indicates that a nationwide carbon market can effectively reduce macroeconomic costs for the whole society,improving regional welfare and reducing regional economic disparities.Industry output also decreases in a smaller range under ET scenarios,as total output increases 0. 335%- 0. 473% compared with NET scenarios. It is more significant in the electric power industry output,the decline of which is only 1. 829%- 1. 895% under ET scenarios while it is almost 6. 079%- 6. 440% under NET scenarios. At the same time,a large-scale trading funds of about 458. 02-3 925. 09 million yuan is transferred from eastern region to central and western regions under the nationwide carbon market,of which the resource regions have an inflow of 397. 20- 1 741. 90 million yuan. These trading funds can be further used by resource regions to invest in CO2 mitigation technologies. Additionally,the impacts of a nationwide carbon market are closely related to the initial quota allocation mechanism. Eastern regions benefit more from the establishment of nationwide carbon market under the Ability to Pay criterion,nevertheless,central and western regions benefit more under the Historic Emission and Twelfth Five Year Plan criteria. The comparison of free allocation and auction shows that a hybrid allocation method of free allocation and auction is preferable in the preliminary stage of a nationwide carbon market in China.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第10期11-17,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
中国科学院先导专项"我国碳减排成本及减排路径选择研究"(编号:XDA05150700)
国家自然科学基金国际重大合作项目"我国统一碳市场建立的条件
机制设计与社会经济影响分析"(编号:71210005)
国家自然科学基金项目"基于成本有效的中国区域间碳排放权交易潜力及其对区域产业格局的影响机理与实证研究"(编号:71203213)
关键词
统一碳市场
区域经济
多区域CGE模型
配额分配机制
nationwide carbon market
regional economy
multi-regional CGE model
initial quota allocation mechanism
