摘要
本文利用动态CGE模型——MCHUGE模型仿真分析了在农业部门生产环节开征碳税对中国农村经济的影响程度。研究结果表明:在农业部门生产环节开征碳税对降低单位GDP能耗,减少CO2排放能起到良好的节能减排效果,但对宏观经济和农业各个产业部门资本收益率、产出水平及就业水平会带来较大的负面冲击。除家畜肉类(猪肉除外)加工业之外,农业温室气体开征碳税对农业各产业资本收益率的影响均呈负向偏离,不利于农户增收和资本积累;除了家畜肉类(猪肉除外)加工业、服装业和皮革制品业等部门产出水平呈正向偏离外,其他产业产出水平均呈现不同程度的负向偏离。受资本收益率和产业产出下降影响,农业部门就业水平也出现相应的负向偏离。
This paper uses a dynamic CGE model-MCHUGE model-to simulate and analyze the impact of carbon tax that collected on production processes of agricultural sectoron the rural economy in China. The results are as follows. A carbon tax on production processes of agricultural sector effectively reduced energy consumption per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions,considerably contributing to energy conservation. But it also brings greater negative impacts on macroeconomic,return on capital of various agricultural sectors,output level and employment level. Except for livestock meat（ pork not included） processing industry,imposing carbon tax on agricultural greenhouse gas has a negative impact on ROE of various agricultural sectors and is not conducive to increase farmers revenue and accumulate capital. Apart from industries such as livestock meat（ pork not included） processing industry,the clothing industry and leather products industry＇s outputs are shown to be a positive deviation. Other industries outputs show negative deviations in different degrees. Influenced by the fall in return on capital and industrial output,the level of employment in the agricultural sector is also a corresponding negative deviation.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第9期41-54,共14页
China Soft Science
基金
国家社科基金(15BJY040)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(15YJC790062)
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2014M552128)
湖南省博士后科研资助专项计划(2014RS4015)
湖南省社科基金(14YBB002)
