摘要
摘要气候变暖将对寒冷地区的湖泊的水温分布和溶解氧分布产生较大的影响，进而影响鱼类的数量．为了评价气候变暖对我国北方寒冷地区冷水性鱼类栖息地的影响，本文基于热氧垂向分布数值模型开发了鱼类栖息地模型．选取了黑龙江省的镜泊湖作为代表性湖泊，选择哲罗鲑作为指示鱼类．本文采取定值评价法和热氧指数法来识别适合哲罗鲑生存的栖息地，对现有气候条件和未来气候条件下哲罗鲑的栖息地进行了评价．模拟结果表明：在未来气候条件下，哲罗鲑冬季不适宜的栖息地将减小，夏季不适宜的栖息地将加大，夏季死鱼的可能性增大．夏季适宜生存的栖息地将减少60％-90％，这意味着夏季死鱼的可能性较大．反映冷水性鱼类年内最大热氧压力的ATD03巾值将增加2．5℃左右，这意味着哲罗鲑幼鱼的存活率将下降35％．在极端温暖的年份，ATD03vb将增加3．8。C左右，哲罗鲑幼鱼的存活率将下降到9％．热氧指数评价法具有较广的适用性，能够用于识别和比较我国东北地区不同类型湖库的冷水性鱼类栖息地．
Climate warming would have a great impact on the water temperature and dissolved oxygen （DO） distribution of lakes in cold regions. It can have an effect on fish populations. To evaluate the effect of climatic change on coldwater fish habitat in cold regions of China, a fish habitat simulation model was developed. The fish habitat simulation model was developed based on the output of A vertical year-round water temperature and dissolved oxygen model. Lake Jingpo in Northeast China was chosen as the representive lake. The coldwater stenothermal fish called Hucho taimen was selected as the indicator species. Constant Values Method and oxythermal habitat parameter method were applied to identify the refuge habitat. The simulation results show that under the future climate scenarios, the uninhabitable space in winter due to low dissolved oxygen in hypolimnion will decrease, the uninhabitable space in summer due to high temperature in epilimnion will expand. Total habitat depth in summer is projected to decrease up to 60% - 90%, which means high probability of summer kill, It is projected that multi-year average value of ATDO3vb （highest average daily TDO3 over variable benchmark period） will have an increase of about 2.5~C, which means Hucho taimen juvenile survival rate will decrease about 35%. In the extreme warm year, the Hucho taimen juvenile survival rate will decrease to 9.0%. The oxythermal habitat parameter method is generic and can be applied to other lakes and reservoirs in Northeast China to identify and compare the refuge habitat of coldwater fishes.
出处
《中国科学：技术科学》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第10期1035-1042,共8页
Scientia Sinica(Technologica)
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(批准号:51039002)资助
关键词
气候变暖
热氧分布
鱼类栖息地
镜泊湖
哲罗鲑
climate warming, oxythermal distribution, fish habitat, Jingpo Lake, Hucho taimen
