摘要
太阳辐照度区间预测是光伏发电区间预测的基础。然而我国现在并未开展太阳辐照度的区间预测,为了更好地掌握气象信息,给光伏出力预测提供更多数据支持,提出一种基于集对分析理论的太阳辐照度区间构建方法。在经过数据预处理、主成分提取后,分别建立相似日辐照度与主因素集对、相似日主因素与待预测日主集对计算相似日主因素与待预测日主因素的同异反距离模型并进行计算,最后使用覆盖率评价方法的效果。实例表明了所提方法的有效性。
The solar irradiance range prediction is the basis of photovoltaic generation range prediction. However,there is no solar irradiance range forecast business in China. In order to grasp more meteorological information andprovide more support for photovoltaic generation prediction, this paper proposes an irradiance interval predictionmethod based on the theory of set pairs. After data processing and principal component extraction, the paper con-structed pairs of similar days＇ irradiance and main factor and of similar days ‘ main factor and future days＇ mainfactor, calculated identical discrepancy contrary（IDC）, and finally evaluated effect with coverage index. The testsamples verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.
出处
《电力科学与工程》
2015年第10期44-49,共6页
Electric Power Science and Engineering
关键词
集对分析
辐照度
区间预测
set pair analysis
solar irradiance
interval prediction
