摘要
[目的]研究昆明城市化气候变化特征及未来趋势。[方法]利用昆明及周边3个观测站1961～2010年的相关气象资料，运用城郊对比法、R／s分析法以及统计分析方法，对近50年昆明城市化气候变化特征及未来趋势进行分析。[结果]近50年来昆明城区和郊区的年平均温度和年平均相对湿度振荡趋势是一致的；昆明市的热岛强度和干岛强度有随时间加剧的趋势；平均最低气温在城市化进程中对区域局地气候的影响效应更为敏感、更为直接。昆明和晋宁的各项气象要素距平变化趋势均存在4级及以上的明显Hurst现象。昆明城市化进程对平均气温和平均最低气温变化的影响强于晋宁，晋宁平均相对湿度未来变化的持续性趋势强于昆明，日照时数距平序列未来的减少趋势具有很强的持续性。[结论]该研究为将来昆明城市发展战略提供科学参考。
[ Objective ] The research aimed to study the variation characteristic and future trend of urbanization cimate in Kunming. [ Method ] Using the meteorological data from 1961 to 2010 of Kunming and three rural observation stations near Kunming, the variation characteristic and future trend of urbanization cimate were analyzed in Kunming during nearly fifty years by the method of comparision between the urban and suburban＇s, R/S analysis and statistical analysis. [ Result] The variation tendencies of the annual average temperature and annual average rel- ative humidity of urban were in accordance with suburban＇ s during nearly fifty years. The urban heat island intensity and dry island intensity were increasing obviously. The urbanization had great impact on the annual average minimum temperature. There were obvious Hurst phenome- non of grade 4 and above for the variation trends of the various meteorological elements anomaly in Kunming and Jinning. The impact of the ur- banization process on the average temperature and the average minimum temperature changes in Kunming was stronger than the impact of Jin- ning. The future sustainable trend of the average relative humidity in Jinning was stronger than that of Kunming. The decreasing trend of sun- shine hours anomaly sequenc had a strong sustainability in the future. [ Conclusion] The study provides the scientific reference for the city de- velopment strategy of Kunming in the future.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2015年第30期171-174,177,共5页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
