摘要
在经济全球化和区域经济一体化背景下,贸易开放使经济增长与碳排放之间的关系更加复杂,需要使用一个包含世界主要经济体的计量经济模型考察三者之间的关系。为此,本文从开放宏观经济系统的视角,构建了包含33个国家5个变量的GVAR模型,并基于1980-2010年的季度数据研究了贸易开放、经济增长和中国二氧化碳排放的动态关系。1985、2000和2010年三个不同时期贸易权重的模型结果表明:三者间存在共同发展趋势和长期均衡关系:随着贸易开放强度增加,中国二氧化碳排放对经济增长冲击响应由强变弱,呈现从倒U型转变为微弱正向关系特征,两者间关系并不符合环境库茨涅茨曲线假说:中国的贸易开放增加了我国二氧化碳排放:国际石油价格上涨短期内增加了中国二氧化碳排放,但长期以显著的减排作用为主。研究结论进一步证明了选择合适的研究方法对检验环境库茨涅茨曲线假说非常重要;也启示我们,扩大国家间贸易开放,尤其是发达国家放开高新技术产品和服务贸易管制对中国等发展中国家碳减排具有显著的促进作用:加快能源要素价格市场化改革是减少我国碳排放的重要措施。
The relations between economic growth and carbon emissions is more and more complicated because the effect of trade openness, based on economic globalization and regional economic integration, as a result, we need a global econometric model to study the relationship of them. From this point, this paper constructs a GVAR model containing 33 countries and five variables from the perspective of the open macroeconomic system, and researches the dynamic relationship among trade openness and economic growth and emission in China based on quarterly data from 1980 to 2010. The following conclusions through the empirical analysis： firstly, there are existence of the same development trend and long-run equilibrium relationship among the three variables; secondly, CO2 Emission response to the GDP Shocks in China becomes weak with trade openness increasing, and does not have a inverted U-shaped feature; thirdly carbon dioxide emissions is increasing due to trade openness in China. Lastly, the effect of oil price on carbon dioxide emissions in China is very important in the long term. The conclusion of this paper shows that it is important to choose an appropriate method to test the EKC hypothesis. Expanding trade openness and market-oriented of energy factor price have a key role to reduce carbon dioxide emissions for the developing countries.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第11期52-58,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目"当前国际资源环境变化背景下加快我国经济发展方式转变的研究"(编号:09AZD047)
关键词
GVAR
贸易开放
碳排放
动态关系
GVAR
trade openness
carbon dioxide emissions
dynamic relationship
