摘要
文章基于GTAP模型的模拟结果,在动态博弈的理论框架下考察了可以通过何种路径促成中日韩自由贸易区,并分析了TPP对中日韩自由贸易区建设路径的可能影响。通过分析得出以下结果:TPP会给中国经济带来负面影响,且此种负面影响会随TPP成员范围的扩大而增加;TPP可能对中日韩FTA的建设路径产生影响,但并不会彻底阻碍中日韩FTA的成立,只是对中日韩多边自由贸易实现的可能路径带来一定限定;无论TPP的谈判结果如何,中日韩3国均可以通过轮轴-辐条结构的FTA实现多边自由贸易。
Based on the simulation results of the GTAP model, this paper first examines what are the feasible paths to lead to the multilateral free trade （MFT） between China, Japan and Korea, and then considers TPP＇s potential im- pacts on the feasible paths of C - J - K FTA in a dynamic game model. The main conclusions are as follows： The establishment of TPP will bring negative in- fluences for China＇s economy, and the negative influence will expand with the in- crease of TPP numbers. Although TPP will have some impacts on the feasible paths of C- J- K FTA, it will only restrict the paths, not block them. Whether TPP is established smoothly or not, China, Japan and Korea can always achieve MFT through overlapping trade agreements.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第11期96-108,共13页
Journal of International Trade
基金
上海日本研究交流中心2015年度课题项目
上海大学生创新活动计划项目(201410269113)
