摘要
针对基于传统三次指数平滑法转速预测精度较低的问题,提出了基于最优平滑系数三次指数平滑法的转速预测方法。该方法根据已知的转速序列曲线,对平滑系数在其取值范围内进行搜索寻优,以预测转速的均方误差作为寻优目标函数,根据已知转速曲线的不同变化趋势,分段寻优并拟合得到目标函数与平滑系数间的函数关系,进而得到各段局部最优平滑系数,对局部最优平滑系数求和取平均值作为全段转速曲线的最优平滑系数,将最优平滑系数应用于工程,得到基于最优平滑系数的转速预测结果。验证结果表明,基于最优平滑系数三次指数平滑法的转速预测均方误差σ=0.048 6,且算法可以实现快速响应,能够满足工程要求。
For three exponential smoothing method based on traditional low speed prediction accuracy problems, a speed prediction based on optimal smoothing parameter cubic exponential smoothing method was presented in this paper.It was based on the known sequence speed curve smoothing coefficient to search optimization within their ranges.To take the mean square error speed prediction as optimization objective function,depending on the known trends of speed curve,segmentation,optimization and fitting function of the objective function with smooth coefficients was abtained.The local optimal smoothing coefficient for each segment of the local optimal smoothing coefficient wes averaged summed as the optimal speed curve.Smoothing factor of the whole paragraph and the optimal smoothing coefficients were used to get the speed prediction.Experimental results showed that the speed prediction based on optimal smoothing factor of three exponential smoothing could achieve rapid re-sponse to meet the engineering requirements.
出处
《探测与控制学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第5期43-46,共4页
Journal of Detection & Control
关键词
转速预测
三次指数平滑法
计算最优平滑系数
rotation speed prediction
cubic exponential smoothing method
calculate the optimal smoothing factor
