摘要
利用安徽省1990-2016年GDP、能源消费和工业废气排放总量的数据,建立VAR模型研究三者之间的动态关系,发现能源消费在短期对经济增长有正向效应,在长期效应则不明显,甚至脉冲响应显示有抑制作用,但是经济增长对能源消费有正向的效应;工业废气排放对经济增长及能源消费均有明显的正向效应。结论在一定程度上支持了国家去产能改革、提高能源利用效率及提升工业废气处理能力的政策。
Based on the data of GDP,energy consumption and total emissions of industrial waste in Anhui Province during the past 1990-2016 years,the VAR model was established to study the dynamic relationship between the above three factors. The results showed that energy consumption has a positive effect on economic growth in the short-term,and the long-term effect is not obvious,even pulse response analysis showed inhibitory effect,however,economic growth has a positive effect on energy consumption. Industrial waste gas emissions have obvious positive effects on economic growth and energy consumption. For a certain extent,cutting excessive industrial capacity,improving the efficiency of energy utilization and the capacity of industrial waste gas treatment are supported by this article.
出处
《蚌埠学院学报》
2018年第1期35-40,共6页
Journal of Bengbu University
关键词
经济增长
能源消费
环境污染
VAR模型
economic growth
energy consumption
environmental pollution
VAR model
