摘要
通过分析北方某城市各类天然气用户历史数据,得到供暖用户的单位面积日用气量预测模型和居民用户的人均日用气量预测模型,为保证预测的完整性,提出商业、工业及其他类用户的日负荷计算方法。综合考虑各类用户的发展规模,建立城市总日用气负荷预测模型,通过对比分析,取最优模型,与实际用气曲线进行对比,取得了较好的预测效果。
The forecasting model for daily gas consumption per unit area of heating users and the forecasting model for per capita daily gas consumption of residential users are obtained by analyzing the historical data of all kinds of natural gas users in a northern city. To ensure the integrity of the forecast, the daily load calculation method for commercial, industrial and other users is proposed. The development scale of all kinds of users is considered, and the forecasting model for total daily gas load is established. By means of the comparison and analysis, the optimal model compared with the actual gas curve is obtained, and a better forecasting result is achieved.
出处
《煤气与热力》
2015年第11期1-4,共4页
Gas & Heat
关键词
北方城市
冬季
供暖
天然气日负荷
northern city
winter
heating
natural gas daily load
