摘要
[目的]描述和分析上海市甲状腺癌发病趋势,为进一步开展相关研究和完善相关防治策略提供依据。[方法]上海市市区甲状腺癌年度发病数据来自上海市恶性肿瘤登记系统,覆盖年份为1981—2010年。采用世界标准人口计算年龄标化发病率。趋势描述和分析采用美国国立癌症研究所建立的平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）分析方法及Joinpoint软件。标化率差异比较采用Z检验。[结果]1981—2010年上海市市区居民男女性甲状腺癌标化发病率呈上升趋势,平均每年分别上升7.71%（95%CI：6.50%~8.95%）和7.05%（95%CI：4.97%~9.18%）,女性甲状腺癌标化发病率是男性的2.59~4.09倍。除了0~19岁以外,各年龄组的发病率均表现出上升趋势,平均每年上升13%以上;甲状腺癌发病高危年龄组逐渐集中于45~64组。2002—2010年,甲状腺癌的病理学类型以乳头状癌为主,占比始终高于53%。2007—2010年乳头状癌、滤泡状癌和女性髓样癌标化发病率较2002—2006年增长至少1倍。[结论]甲状腺癌在上海的增长趋势与全球以及部分发达国家的情况相似。加强相关评估和研究将有助于更清晰地认识上海市甲状腺癌流行病学特点,为完善相关防治策略奠定基础。
[ Objective ] To describe the temporal trend for incidence of thyroid cancer （TC） in Shanghai and to provide reference for further studies and control strategies. [ Methods ] Annual TC incidence data within the period of 1981-2010 for urban Shanghai was provided by Shanghai Cancer Registry System. The calculation of age-standardized incidence rates （ASIRs） was based on world standard population. Average annual percentage of change （AAPC） and Joinpoint software from US National Cancer Institute were used to describe the trend for TC. Z test was used to distinguish the difference of ASIRs. [ Results ] During 1981-2010, the temporal variation of ASIRs for TC for urban residents in Shanghai had ascending trends with a male AAPC of 7.71% （95%CI： 6.50%-8.95%） and a female AAPC of 7.05% （95%CI： 4.97%-9.18%）. The ASIRs for female TC were 2.59-4.09 times as high as those for male TC in urban Shanghai. All ASIRs of TC for the urban residents had rising trends with AAPCs over 13% except those aged 0-19 years. The population with high risks of TC was gradually concentrated in the 45-64 years age group. During the period of 2002-2010, papillary cancer was the dominant type with proportions over 53% of total types of TC. The ASIRs of 2007-2010 from papillary, follicular, and female medullary cancers were at least double the respective levels of 2002-2006. [ Conclusion ] The rising trend of TC in Shanghai is similar to those in the global and some developed countries. Improvement of the evaluation and research on factors associated with TC will help to clarify the epidemiological features about TC in Shanghai and promote more efficient control and prevention strategies.
出处
《环境与职业医学》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第11期997-1002,共6页
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine
基金
卫生行业科研专项(编号:201202012)
上海市科委课题(编号:11DJ1400202)
关键词
肿瘤登记
甲状腺癌
发病趋势
平均年度变化百分比
年龄标化发病率
cancer registry
thyroid cancer
incidence trend
average annual percentage of change
age-standardized incidence rate
