摘要
利用江苏35站1961—2014年的气象观测数据和水稻产量数据,基于ArcGis软件统计分析了水稻关键生育期内低温冷害的时空变化特征和敏感性。结果表明：（1）低温冷害总次数呈现＂北多南少＂的总体特征,20世纪70年代发生的冷害次数最多,21世纪00年代为第二高值期;（2）全省低温冷害持续天数主要是3~6 d,其中持续3 d的比重最大,平均占50%左右,淮北存在6 d以上的低温冷害过程,但比重基本不足10%,淮北遭遇低温冷害的时间要早于淮南,淮南基本上都是在9月上旬才会发生;（3）低温冷害总体发生几率存在＂北大南小＂的特征,年代际波动明显,20世纪70年代的发生几率最大,21世纪00年代次之,20世纪80—90年代最小;（4）江苏西北部低温冷害强度最强,21世纪00年代低温冷害强度最强,20世纪70年代次之,20世纪80—90年代最弱;（5）江苏中部是水稻对低温冷害的高敏感地区。
Using 35 meteorological stations observation data and rice yield data during 1961- 2014,and the ArcGis software technology,we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and sensitivity during the key growth period of rice when chilling injury events occur.The results show that（1） the total chilling injuries number presents a ＂north more south less＂ distribution,and the largest number of chilling injuries appears in the 1970 s,then the second largest in the 2000 s.（2） Most chilling injury events last three to six days,mostly three days,standing for about 50%of the total events.Some chilling injuries lasting longer than six days occur in Huaibei（the area to the north of Huaihe River）,with proportion below 10%.Usually Huaibei suffers chilling injuries earlier than Huainan（the area to the south of Huaihe River）,most in early September.（3） Basically,the probability of the chilling injuries also presents a ＂north more south less＂ feature and significant decadal fluctuations.The largest occurrence probability appears in the 1970 s,followed by the 2000 s,and the lowest during 1980 s to 1990 s.（4） The intensity of chilling injuries is the highest in the northwest of Jiangsu,where the most intensive chilling injuries happen in the 2000 s,followed by the 1970 s,and the weakest in the 1980 s and the 1990 s.（5） The highest sensitivity area of rice to chilling injuries is the central part of Jiangsu.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第11期1367-1373,共7页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306035)
江苏省气象局青年科研基金项目(Q201517)共同资助
关键词
江苏水稻
障碍型冷害
敏感性
Jiangsu rice
sterile-type chilling injury
sensitivity
