摘要
为了研究多米诺效应中多事故点协同作用的后果,将并联系统概率模型运用到贝叶斯概率计算过程中,体现出多事故点协同作用对多米诺效应传播的概率影响;后果分析部分从人、物、环境3个方面出发,对事故的后果影响以及事故预防提出建议措施。最后运用模型对实例进行了应用分析,结果表明:多事故点协同作用下储罐的多米诺失效概率增大,罐区危险性增强,可以通过对储罐设置安全屏障等措施,有效的切断导致事故最大概率的链条。
In order to study the consequence by synergistic action of multiple accident points in the domino effect, the parallel system probability model was applied into the calculation process of Bayesian probability, and the prob- ability influence by synergistic action of multiple accident points to the spread of domino effect was reflected. In the consequence analysis part, the recommended measures of accident consequence influence and accident prevention were put forward from three aspects, including person, object and environment. At last, the model was applied in the application analysis of practical case. The results showed that under the synergistic action of multiple accident points, the domino failure probability of tank increased, and the risk of tank area increased also. The chain caused the largest probability of accident can be effectively cut off by setting up safety barriers and other measures to the storage tanks.
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第11期131-136,共6页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(10ZCGYS01600)
关键词
多米诺效应
多事故点
协同作用
概率模型
后果分析模型
事故预防
domino effect
multiple accident points
synergistic action
probability model
consequence analysismodel
accident prevention
