摘要
以南四湖流域24个雨量站1964-2008年的降水量资料为基础,采用经验正交函数(EOF)分解和线性趋势估计分析了汛期降水的空间分布特征,并借助Spearman秩次相关法、小波分析和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,对流域汛期降水的多尺度时间演变规律进行了研究,初步预测了其未来变化特征,以期为南四湖流域的防洪决策调度提供参考。结果表明:南四湖流域不同地区的汛期降水具有较明显的空间分布特征,而时间演变趋势大致相同,整体呈线性递增的趋势,2008年以后汛期降水将处于偏丰状态。
According to precipitation data from 1964 to 2008 of 24 precipitation stations in Nansihu Basin, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation in flood season, which is based on empirical orthogonal function （EOF） decomposition and linear trend estimation. Furthermore, the muhi-scale time evolution laws were studied by Spearman rank correlation, wavelet analysis method and Mann Kendall mutation test, the variation characteristics of the future were forecast later, aiming at supporting the flood control dispatching in research area. The results show that： the spatial distribution characteristics are obvious and the time evolution trends are roughly the same in different regions in Nasihu Basin, the precipitation of flood season has a linear increasing trend and will be in the overabundant state after 2008.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2015年第11期48-54,共7页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金(51279223
51109055)
水利部公益性行业科研经费项目(201201022
201301003)
关键词
南四湖流域
汛期降水
空间分布
时间演变规律
Nansihu Basin
precipitation in flood season
spatial distribution
time evolution laws
